It's Richmond or Bust!

One last race to set the Chase field and it’s been like a game of “Hot Potato” while a small group of drivers vie for the 12^th and final spot. Nobody wants it! Will someone win the spot by default?

 

Just one little bump...

 

Atlanta had a potential Chaser come right down to the wire only to have his chance at the gold ring ripped out of his grasp. Jeff Gordon has been left wondering if he’s become too soft in the latter part of his racing career after not going the “bump and run” route on eventual race winner Denny Hamlin. Hamlin’s win, preventing Gordon from getting to victory lane, worked to keep his teammate Kyle Busch in the final Chase position thanks to his point total. (see http://www.thatsracin.com/2012/09/03/93843/jeff-gordon-wonders-if-hes-getting.html)

Believe it or not, there are actually 6 other drivers besides Kyle who can wind up in the cherished final Chase position.

The least likely of this group to get in is Paul Menard and without going through all the necessary things that must happen I’ll just say it’s like a snowball’s chance… A win and some horrendous finishes by top drivers is all that can make Paul’s day a happy one…



Dinner at SB's house...

What the???

Poor Carl Edwards has enough on his plate just dealing with the 42 other drivers and teams he faces each week, but Beagle Voodoo is like the final straw. Going into Atlanta Carl was very optimistic with his chances to win on a track where his had past success. He told more than one interviewer he expected to win and assume the 12^th Chase position. What happened? That darned Beagle played in and blew up Carl’s engine! Carl still has a long shot at the Chase but does anyone really want to bet on him? Somebody (Kristen? Sal? Gene? Phil?) needs to corner Cousin Carl, tell him what has been going on, give him the Speed Beagle’s phone number and tell him to formally apologize and not to allow this to continue! Like Paul Menard, Carl must win and have terrible finishes from drivers who don’t normally go that route in order to make the Chase.

And the beat goes on with the one-win drivers… If Joey Logano, Marcos Ambrose, Ryan Newman, Jeff Gordon or Kyle Busch win in Richmond they’re in… Simple, right?

Here’s the rundown on these five drivers’ results across the last 10 races at Richmond:

Driver------------------Wins---------------Top 5’s---------------Top 10’s-------------Average Finish

Kyle Busch--------------4---------------------7------------------------8-------------------------5.4

Jeff Gordon-------------0---------------------4------------------------7------------------------11.1

Ryan Newman---------0---------------------1------------------------5------------------------12.6

Marcos Ambrose------0---------------------1------------------------2------------------------16.1

Joey Logano------------0---------------------1------------------------1------------------------17.6

Here’s how these five drivers were ranked and performed in the previous four races in this series:

Driver------------------Rank--W G--Rank--Mich--Rank--Bristol--Rank—Atlanta—Ave. Finish

Kyle Busch--------------1-------7------1--------13-----1-------6--------2---------6-----------8

Ryan Newman---------2------11-----3---------28-----2------36-------3--------35---------27.5

Jeff Gordon-------------3------21-----2----------8-----3--------3-------1---------2----------8.5

Joey Logano------------4------32-----4---------31-----5-------8-------5---------18--------22.3

Marcos Ambrose------*-------1-----5-----------5-----4-------5-------4---------17---------7 (!)

*Marcos was winless going into Watkins Glen and not ranked but just look at who has out-performed the others in terms of average finish through this four race period leading up to Richmond.

It's not impossible...

Considering what has occurred over the course of the previous four races will any of the original group of four drivers step up? For the fourth time in the five races analyzed Kyle Busch stands most likely to win as the only driver to win at Richmond in the last 10 races and he’s done it four times! His average finish is less than half that of the next best driver… Jeff Gordon has to be characterized as the hottest driver in the group with a second and third place finish in Atlanta and Bristol respectively. Marcos fell off of his hot pace at Atlanta finishing seventeenth but he seems to perform well on short tracks. Then there’s Ryan Newman and Joey Logano who have  both been thrashing to get to this point. I’ll drag out what has become a broken record to this point in time and say it again… “Just win baby!” It will cure what ails any of these five.

Here are the current odds to win at Richmond next weekend among this group from http://www.thespread.com/nascar-articles/090412-2012-nascar-odds-federated-auto-parts-400-hamlin-a-busch-favored : Kyle Busch 9/2, Jeff Gordon 8/1, Ryan Newman 50/1, Joey Logano 60/1 and Marcos Ambrose 100/1. If I had to bet right now I think I’d take the long odds and throw down on our Australian brother, Marcos Ambrose!

 

A Hot Time In Hotlanta?

Who is going to burn Atlanta down?

Last week’s bombshell of a race at Bristol sure did bring out the best on the hostility front. Fan interest and viewership are up! Bruton must be smilin’ like the Cheshire Cat! (and so is race winner Denny Hamlin!)

So we march on to Atlanta once again with a group of drivers hoping to launch themselves into the glory of the Chase. There has been some shuffling among this group thanks to Bristol’s summer race on the revamped half mile concrete oval. Kyle Busch, on the strength of his 6^th place finish and 38 points, coupled with Ryan Newman’s unfortunate wreck that sent his team home early with a 36^th place finish and only 8 points, moved up to 13^th place and into the lead for the final Chase opening. Although Kyle wasn’t credited with leading a single lap at Bristol, a track he has tamed many times, I’m thinkin’ he’s pleased with these results but the fact remains any of this group of six drivers with a shot at 12^th place in the Chase can, just by virtue of a single win, either here in Atlanta or next week in Richmond, sew up the last seat at the dance.

Carl Edwards was oh so close to winning at Bristol after not stopping for fuel and tires on a caution with 85 laps to go. The strategy had him leading late in the race for 45 laps but alas (J) fresh tires and a splash was the way to go as Carl got passed then went dry. The 99 Ford team ended the night in 22^nd place garnering only 23 points. Carl remains in 12^th place without a win and a withering lead now only 5 points ahead of Kyle… Although I like them taking the risk late in the race and rolling the dice for another caution to pop up, the bottom line from this risky decision now equates to desperation time for the 99…

Jeff Gordon also elbowed his way past Newman to take over 14^th place, 15 points behind JGR’s 18. Jeff, powered by his great HMS 24 team, put together a strong effort coming in 3^rd at Bristol.

Now in 15^th place, all is not lost for the SHR 39 even though Ryan Newman gave up a lot of ground on the point’s side at Bristol. All you Ryan Newman fans have to do is just revisit Al Davis’ favorite saying…

Marcos Ambrose also moved up with his 5^th place Bristol finish adding 40 points to his total. Marcos is now in 16^th place and really picking up the pace as we head into turn four. Suddenly he’s trailing Kyle Busch for the 12^th place in the Chase by only 28 points! If he keeps the pressure on there’s no telling what might happen!

Joey Logano entered the Cup race at Bristol full of confidence after running off with the Nationwide win at Bristol race a day earlier and although he turned in a very good effort finishing in 8^th place, he’s so far down on the point’s side that a win is all that will cure his ills. Joey continues to languish in 18^th place not even within hailing distance of Paul Menard in 17^th place.

Bring on Atlanta!

Here is a quick rundown on these 6 drivers and their experiences down in Peach Country by order of most successful to least over their last 10 races:

Driver------------------Wins---------------Top 5’s---------------Top 10’s-------------Average Finish

Jeff Gordon-------------1---------------------3------------------------7-------------------------8.1

Carl Edwards-----------1---------------------5------------------------7------------------------14.5

Kyle Busch--------------1---------------------3------------------------3------------------------16.9

Ryan Newman---------0---------------------0------------------------2------------------------19.6

Marcos Ambrose------0---------------------0------------------------1------------------------22.0

Joey Logano------------0---------------------0------------------------0------------------------26.7

This is the first track I’ve examined in this series of races leading up to the 2012 Sprint Cup Chase where Kyle Busch hasn’t had the best record going in. Is it any coincidence that Atlanta is yet another of Bruton Smith’s 1.5 mile cookie cutter tracks? And along those same lines, is it any wonder why Jeff Gordon does well here?

Will this be the race where one of this group of almost also-rans knocks it out of the park? Or will we have to march on to Richmond to finally set the Chase field…

My best case scenario? Have one of these drivers notch their second win at Atlanta, move on to Richmond, full of optimism as the heir apparent to the Chase and then have another driver with a higher point total knock them off the perch at the last possible moment! Now that would really get the juices flowing! It would certainly give us something to consider since I’m afraid the 10 race 2012 Chase will only seem anti-climactic after what happened last year.

Do Fords Really Consistently Win At Michigan?

Last week we were looking down a twisting road course trying to determine who might, based upon their historical accomplishments at Watkins Glen, improve their chances of making the 2012 Sprint Cup Chase. Of the four drivers with a single win at the time it appeared Kyle Busch should have held the edge going into the race. Although the outright win went to that interloper from Australia, Marcos Ambrose, here’s how the four drivers with a single win were expected to perform and how they actually did:

Kyle Busch, with 6 top 10 finishes in 7 races, 3 top 5’s and a win in 2008 on the Glen course was by far the best historical driver and he ended up placing 7^th, which in combination with his lead laps netted the JGR #18 39 points.

Ryan Newman, in his last 10 starts at Watkins Glen put up the second best numbers with a top 5 and 3 top 10’s. Ryan just missed a top 10 finish coming in 11^th and garnering 33 points.

Jeff Gordon had just 2 top 10 finishes in his last 10 starts on New York’s road course and although, like Kyle Busch, he had a genuine shot at a top 5 finish and possibly the win, Jeff was victimized by the oily track. After spinning out on the final lap he finished well down the line in 21^st and only picked up 23 points for the 24 team’s effort.

Joey Logano was kind of a dark horse in this since we only had 3 starts in Sprint Cup racing to examine. His best finish was just last year when he came in 5^th. Logano ended up having a bad day finishing 32^nd and only picking up 12 points.

The analysis was really quite accurate based on the historical numbers these drivers have produced. So what was the bottom line coming out of one of the best races we’ve seen in a long time? Instead of the picture clearing up a little concerning who might end up grabbing the 12^th and final position in the 2012 Chase, the picture has become even more muddled with yet another driver literally willing himself into the competition.  

Going into this week’s Cup race at Michigan International Speedway I’ll now take a look at 5 drivers and their historical numbers. Just remember if any of these 5 can rip off a win at MIS the odds go way way up that they’ll be in the Chase and we all know anything can happen if a driver gets hot late in the season…

In order of their points standings after 22 races-

Ryan Newman is 13^th with 644 points (49 points out of 10^th place). In his last 10 starts at Michigan Ryan has 1 top 5 and 2 top 10 finishes and his average finish has been 19.8.

Kyle Busch is now in 14^th place with 638 points. In his last 10 starts Kyle has 1 win (Aug. 2011) and 3 top 5’s. Kyle’s average finish has been 13.8.

Jeff Gordon is 15^th with 634 points. Jeff has 3 top 5 and 5 top 10 finishes in his last 10 starts at MIS. His average finish has been 15.1.

Marcos Ambrose comes in 17^th with 600 points on the strength of last Sunday’s win. In his 8 starts at Michigan Marcos has accumulated 1 top 10 finish and that was a 9^th place finish last June. His average finish has been 24.9.

Finally, Joey Logano is in 18^th in the points standings through 22 races this season with 587 total points. In 7 Michigan Cup race appearances Joey has 2 top 10 finishes and his finishes have averaged 18.0.

Based on these numbers Kyle Busch should once again come out on top at Michigan followed by Jeff Gordon and Ryan Newman. Will another interloper show up? Will Carl Edwards come out of his winless funk and assert his claim to the Chase? Fords are supposed to do well on this track. (The way it stands right now all Carl needs is one win while staying in 12^th )

With only Bristol, Atlanta and finally Richmond coming up after Michigan before the Chase field is set, who wants it?

Grist for the NASCAR Rumor Mill

The talk started a few weeks back. Now with the announcement that Red Bull is planning to pull out of NASCAR at the end of the 2011 season, the speculation has kicked into high gear concerning who is going where prior to 2012.

First off, if it’s true about Red Bull, Brian Vickers will be looking for a new ride. Based on the fact that Red Bull bought out Ginn Racing a couple of years back, talk is now swirling that a new investor may step forward and take over the operation. Who might do such a thing has led to rumors that Mark Martin could be interested in leading a group to buy the team but as recently as yesterday Martin squelched that rumor stating in an interview on WindTunnel that he has no interest in owning a team. Then there’s talk that Red Bull’s general manager Jay Frye might try to line up an investor group to take over the organization. If something like that happens then Vickers may not have to leave. If a strong enough group steps forward and they remain a two car operation, then there will be a Sprint Cup ride available since Kasey Kahne is moving to Hendrick Motorsports next year. Here again there’s speculation that Martin would be a logical choice to move into this new team. Another rumor has Carl Edwards, who for some reason (more money?) hasn’t re-upped with Roush-Fenway, being the lead man in a buyout of Red Bull. This seems like a stretch to me, but who knows? Why hasn’t Carl followed right along with Greg Biffle and got a deal done with Jack Roush?

Speaking of Edwards, his lack of activity on a new contract has led to a lot of conjecture. One popular rumor that I can’t fathom has Joe Gibbs signing Cousin Carl and putting him in the Home Depot number 20 Toyota and either cutting Joey Logano loose or going to a four car Sprint Cup organization. This has been fueled by talk that Home Depot isn’t happy playing second fiddle to Lowes and their five time champion Jimmie Johnson. Now I have to admit Carl strikes me as being a do-it-yourself type of guy and would be much better suited to representing a company such as Home Depot while Joey is better suited to what, video games? All that talk about Joe Gibbs Racing makes me think Carl might have started the rumor to give himself leverage in negotiations with Roush. Now that strikes me as feasible. Roush has called Edwards a “Rock Star” so maybe Carl’s shooting for rock star wages (!) and Roush is sorry he ever said such a thing. Here again, who knows?

The gossip about Logano possibly being moved out of the Home Depot ride may cool now that he’s finally showing signs of living up to his “Sliced Bread” moniker with JGR. He’s still one of the youngest drivers on the circuit and I expect Gibbs to hang with the guy.

Based on his success, or lack thereof, across the 2011 Sprint Cup season while driving top quality Hendrick Motorsports equipment I have to think Mark Martin is done at the Cup level. Maybe he’ll get back into Nationwide and try to preserve his lead in career wins at that level.

Another top flight driver who has been rumored to possibly be on the move is Clint Boyer. There was talk not too long ago that Clint might be interested in taking over the number 4 Toyota with Red Bull, but that’s all gone away with the Associated Press release last week that Red Bull is done with NASCAR. Boyer strikes me as the type to be an organization’s lead driver and that’s not going to happen in the Childress organization as long as Kevin Harvick is there. So will Boyer move? He’s stated his prime concern is to stay put with Childress.


Then there’s Juan Pablo Montoya and Ryan Newman who both have their deals up for negotiation this year with Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing and Stewart-Haas Racing respectively. I’ve got to say that whether Juan wants to move on or not, I don’t know of much interest for the man anywhere other than with Chip Ganassi. If he stays in NASCAR he’ll be with EGR… As for Newman, I think he knows where he’s well off and that’s with Stewart-Haas.

With all these rumors being kicked around I have to say it looks like the best course for most of these guys is to stay put.

In another vein, there continues to be a question concerning Danica Patrick.
Will she finally stick to one racing series next year? I believe if she’s ever going to be a consistent top driver she’s got to make the move into just one series. Whether her detractors believe it or not, I think she’s shown marked improvement with the fender rubbers in NASCAR’s Nationwide Series and that her best option would be to move full-time to that series and then consider a ride at the Cup level. She has one heck of a following, she’s good for NASCAR and if she follows that course maybe we’ll see her in victory lane. It’s supposed to be about winning isn’t it?

I’m sure I’ve missed out on some of the rumors out there. What have you heard?