What do Dale Earnhardt Jr., Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart and Clint Bowyer have in common? They’re all, to one degree or another, on the bubble!
The way I see it, with just Atlanta and Richmond left before the Cup Chase participants are determined, two of these four will be in and two won’t…
Up front Junior is in the best position to make it since he’s sitting in 9th place on points and 10 drivers are in the Chase that way.
Tony Stewart is in 10th place 18 points behind Dale Jr. and 21 points ahead of 11th place Brad Keselowski (who mathematically makes the Chase with his 3 wins and being in the top 20 by finishing higher than 13th at Atlanta… At least that’s the way I’ve got it figured!).
One point further back from Keselowski and residing in 12th place in the Chase is Clint Bowyer. Clint can make the Chase by either moving past Brad and either Tony or Junior into the top 10 on points or he has to continue leading Denny Hamlin in the points and wins either of the upcoming non-Chase races coupled with no other wins by Hamlin, Paul Menard, David Ragan or (with what’s becoming a very long shot) Marcos Ambrose. Of all these four drivers, Bowyer’s is the most tenuous situation but Hamlin has got to be sweating bullets too.
Of all these drivers, Denny showed the best at Bristol finishing in 7th, but he can’t take much solace in that. As stated above, if Menard, Ragan or possibly Ambrose can pull off a second win at either Atlanta or Richmond, then I’ll paraphrase Howard Cosell… “Down Goes Denny! Down Goes Denny!”
So who among this group has shown the best at Atlanta and Richmond in the past? Here’s what it looks like by the numbers:
Atlanta-
Tony Stewart in 24 starts has averaged an 11.58 finish with 3 wins.
Dale Jr. in 23 starts has averaged a 12.48 finish with 1 win.
Clint Bowyer in 10 starts has averaged a 15.5 finish without any wins.
Denny Hamlin in 11 starts has averaged an 18.46 finish without any wins.
I don’t see any distinct advantage for Hamlin or Bowyer or any disadvantage for Earnhardt or Stewart from Atlanta, so let’s say there aren’t any changes after that race. So it all boils down to Richmond… (and NASCAR gets just what they hoped for with their new Chase format, an interest generating finale to set the Chase field!)
Richmond-
Now it gets interesting on one of NASCAR’s old-time, iconic short tracks…
Richmond is Denny Hamlin’s home track and since Denny’s been in Cup racing only one driver (Kyle Busch) has shown better there… Denny Hamlin in 11 starts has averaged a 7.45 finish with 2 wins.
Surprisingly, Clint Bowyer comes in right behind Hamlin at Richmond! Clint Bowyer in 11 starts has averaged a 9.45 finish with 1 win.
Then, here comes Tony Stewart right behind Bowyer! Tony Stewart in 25 starts has averaged an 11.04 finish with 3 wins.
Dale Jr. hasn’t done too shabby at Richmond either coming in 10th best overall. Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 24 starts has averaged a 14.33 finish with 3 wins.
Looks like a shootout to me!
Considering how closely bunched these guys are, and with the knowledge that little things mean a lot when a person is under building stress, what else is going on that might weigh in to this determination?
Well, let’s see…
I’m hearing that Tony Stewart has been distracted this summer while manning his team owner duties putting together the Danica Patrick deal, but that’s done now… If this has been true, will Tony now shove aside everything else to concentrate on his racing and live up to his past champion status?
It’s been well chronicled that Clint Bowyer hasn’t signed a new contract with Richard Childress Racing and that’s got to be a constant burden right now. From what I’m hearing, Childress wants Clint to take a pay cut so Bowyer has been entertaining other offers. This economic climate certainly isn’t the best to be job hunting in… Just last week several NASCAR reporters had articles about Clint’s on-going contract problems, then he basically tanks it at Bristol…
Denny Hamlin and his team (primarily Hamlin and Crew Chief Mike Ford) have been at odds since the end of the 2010 season. I think it’s amazing the 11 team is anywhere near being in the 2011 Chase given these circumstances, but here they are and now it appears they all looked up and realized just where they are! Maybe the pressure’s suddenly going down on this team!
Then there’s NASCAR’s ultimate pressure cooker we all know as Dale Earnhardt Jr. I think the years of scrutiny have left Junior more or less immune to it all. With Dale Jr. the saying “It is what it is…” really fits. It’s been very interesting to hear Junior talking more about what he really wants as this year’s Chase draws near. In my opinion, this guy needs motivation on a much higher plain than what pushes the other drivers in NASCAR. Maybe having another chance, and the first in quite a while, at a NASCAR championship will build a real fire under him. Wouldn’t that be something?
Concerning the one-win drivers with a shot at the Chase if they can just win another race, all three won their first ever Sprint Cup race this year… Now really, what are the odds any one of them can pull off another win this season? I’ve got to say the odds are slim and none, but 2011 has been a very unusual year, so who knows?
The orchestra that is NASCAR is building to a pre-Chase crescendo! Whose songs will be played?
How do you see it playing out?
The talk started a few weeks back. Now with the announcement that Red Bull is planning to pull out of NASCAR at the end of the 2011 season, the speculation has kicked into high gear concerning who is going where prior to 2012.
First off, if it’s true about Red Bull, Brian Vickers will be looking for a new
ride. Based on the fact that Red Bull bought out Ginn Racing a couple of years back, talk is now swirling that a new investor may step forward and take over the operation. Who might do such a thing has led to rumors that Mark Martin could be interested in leading a group to buy the team but as recently as yesterday Martin squelched that rumor stating in an interview on WindTunnel that he has no interest in owning a team. Then there’s talk that Red 
Bull’s general manager Jay Frye might try to line up an investor group to take over the organization. If something like that happens then Vickers may not have to leave. If a strong enough group steps forward and they remain a two car operation, then there will be a Sprint Cup ride available since Kasey Kahne is moving to Hendrick Motorsports next year. Here again there’s speculation that Martin would be a logical choice to move into this new team. Another rumor has Carl Edwards, who for some reason (more money?) hasn’t re-upped with Roush-Fenway, being the lead man in a buyout of Red Bull. This seems like a stretch to me, but who knows? Why hasn’t Carl followed right along with Greg Biffle and got a deal done with Jack Roush?
Speaking of Edwards, his lack of activity on a new contract has led to a lot of 
conjecture. One popular rumor that I can’t fathom has Joe Gibbs signing Cousin Carl and putting him in the Home Depot number 20 Toyota and either cutting Joey Logano loose or going to a four car Sprint Cup organization. This has been fueled by talk that Home Depot isn’t happy playing second fiddle to Lowes and their five time champion Jimmie Johnson. Now I have to admit Carl strikes me as being a do-it-yourself type of guy and would be much better suited to representing a company such as Home Depot while Joey is better suited to
what, video games? All that talk about Joe Gibbs Racing makes me think Carl might have started the rumor to give himself leverage in negotiations with Roush. Now that strikes me as feasible. Roush has called Edwards a “Rock Star” so maybe Carl’s shooting for rock star wages (!) and Roush is sorry he ever said such a thing. Here again, who knows?
The gossip about Logano possibly being moved out of the Home Depot ride may cool now that he’s finally showing signs of living up to his “Sliced Bread” moniker with JGR. He’s still one of the youngest drivers on the circuit and I expect Gibbs to hang with the guy. 
Based on his success, or lack thereof, across the 2011 Sprint Cup season while driving top quality Hendrick Motorsports equipment I have to think Mark Martin is done at the Cup level. Maybe he’ll get back into Nationwide and try to preserve his lead in career wins at that level.
Another top flight driver who has been rumored to possibly be on the move is Clint 
Boyer. There was talk not too long ago that Clint might be interested in taking over the number 4 Toyota with Red Bull, but that’s all gone away with the Associated Press release last week that Red Bull is done with NASCAR. Boyer strikes me as the type to be an organization’s lead driver and that’s not going to happen in the Childress organization as long as Kevin Harvick is there. So will Boyer move? He’s stated his prime concern is to stay put with Childress.
Then there’s Juan Pablo Montoya and Ryan Newman who both have their deals up for negotiation this year with Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing and Stewart-Haas
Racing respectively. I’ve got to say that whether Juan wants to move on or not, I don’t know of much interest for the man anywhere other than with Chip Ganassi. If he stays in NASCAR he’ll be with EGR… As for Newman, I think he knows where he’s well off and that’s with Stewart-Haas.
With all these rumors being kicked around I have to say it looks like the best course for most of these guys is to stay put.
In another vein, there continues to be a question concerning Danica Patrick. 
Will she finally stick to one racing series next year? I believe if she’s ever going to be a consistent top driver she’s got to make the move into just one series. Whether her detractors believe it or not, I think she’s shown marked improvement with the fender rubbers in NASCAR’s Nationwide Series and that her best option would be to move full-time to that series and then consider a ride at the Cup level. She has one heck of a following, she’s good for NASCAR and if she follows that course maybe we’ll see her in victory lane. It’s supposed to be about winning isn’t it?
I’m sure I’ve missed out on some of the rumors out there. What have you heard?
It’s been well chronicled that Clint Bowyer hasn’t signed a new contract with Richard Childress Racing and that’s got to be a constant burden right now. From what I’m hearing, Childress wants Clint to take a pay cut so Bowyer has been entertaining other offers. This economic climate certainly isn’t the best to be job hunting in… Just last week several NASCAR reporters had articles about Clint’s on-going contract problems, then he basically tanks it at Bristol…
Denny Hamlin and his team (primarily Hamlin and Crew Chief Mike Ford) have been at odds since the end of the 2010 season. I think it’s amazing the 11 team is anywhere near being in the 2011 Chase given these circumstances, but here they are and now it appears they all looked up and realized just where they are! Maybe the pressure’s suddenly going down on this team!
Then there’s NASCAR’s ultimate pressure cooker we all know as Dale Earnhardt Jr. I think the years of scrutiny have left Junior more or less immune to it all. With Dale Jr. the saying “It is what it is…” really fits. It’s been very interesting to hear Junior talking more about what he really wants as this year’s Chase draws near. In my opinion, this guy needs motivation on a much higher plain than what pushes the other drivers in NASCAR. Maybe having another chance, and the first in quite a while, at a NASCAR championship will build a real fire under him. Wouldn’t that be something?
