It's Richmond or Bust!

One last race to set the Chase field and it’s been like a game of “Hot Potato” while a small group of drivers vie for the 12^th and final spot. Nobody wants it! Will someone win the spot by default?

 

Just one little bump...

 

Atlanta had a potential Chaser come right down to the wire only to have his chance at the gold ring ripped out of his grasp. Jeff Gordon has been left wondering if he’s become too soft in the latter part of his racing career after not going the “bump and run” route on eventual race winner Denny Hamlin. Hamlin’s win, preventing Gordon from getting to victory lane, worked to keep his teammate Kyle Busch in the final Chase position thanks to his point total. (see http://www.thatsracin.com/2012/09/03/93843/jeff-gordon-wonders-if-hes-getting.html)

Believe it or not, there are actually 6 other drivers besides Kyle who can wind up in the cherished final Chase position.

The least likely of this group to get in is Paul Menard and without going through all the necessary things that must happen I’ll just say it’s like a snowball’s chance… A win and some horrendous finishes by top drivers is all that can make Paul’s day a happy one…



Dinner at SB's house...

What the???

Poor Carl Edwards has enough on his plate just dealing with the 42 other drivers and teams he faces each week, but Beagle Voodoo is like the final straw. Going into Atlanta Carl was very optimistic with his chances to win on a track where his had past success. He told more than one interviewer he expected to win and assume the 12^th Chase position. What happened? That darned Beagle played in and blew up Carl’s engine! Carl still has a long shot at the Chase but does anyone really want to bet on him? Somebody (Kristen? Sal? Gene? Phil?) needs to corner Cousin Carl, tell him what has been going on, give him the Speed Beagle’s phone number and tell him to formally apologize and not to allow this to continue! Like Paul Menard, Carl must win and have terrible finishes from drivers who don’t normally go that route in order to make the Chase.

And the beat goes on with the one-win drivers… If Joey Logano, Marcos Ambrose, Ryan Newman, Jeff Gordon or Kyle Busch win in Richmond they’re in… Simple, right?

Here’s the rundown on these five drivers’ results across the last 10 races at Richmond:

Driver------------------Wins---------------Top 5’s---------------Top 10’s-------------Average Finish

Kyle Busch--------------4---------------------7------------------------8-------------------------5.4

Jeff Gordon-------------0---------------------4------------------------7------------------------11.1

Ryan Newman---------0---------------------1------------------------5------------------------12.6

Marcos Ambrose------0---------------------1------------------------2------------------------16.1

Joey Logano------------0---------------------1------------------------1------------------------17.6

Here’s how these five drivers were ranked and performed in the previous four races in this series:

Driver------------------Rank--W G--Rank--Mich--Rank--Bristol--Rank—Atlanta—Ave. Finish

Kyle Busch--------------1-------7------1--------13-----1-------6--------2---------6-----------8

Ryan Newman---------2------11-----3---------28-----2------36-------3--------35---------27.5

Jeff Gordon-------------3------21-----2----------8-----3--------3-------1---------2----------8.5

Joey Logano------------4------32-----4---------31-----5-------8-------5---------18--------22.3

Marcos Ambrose------*-------1-----5-----------5-----4-------5-------4---------17---------7 (!)

*Marcos was winless going into Watkins Glen and not ranked but just look at who has out-performed the others in terms of average finish through this four race period leading up to Richmond.

It's not impossible...

Considering what has occurred over the course of the previous four races will any of the original group of four drivers step up? For the fourth time in the five races analyzed Kyle Busch stands most likely to win as the only driver to win at Richmond in the last 10 races and he’s done it four times! His average finish is less than half that of the next best driver… Jeff Gordon has to be characterized as the hottest driver in the group with a second and third place finish in Atlanta and Bristol respectively. Marcos fell off of his hot pace at Atlanta finishing seventeenth but he seems to perform well on short tracks. Then there’s Ryan Newman and Joey Logano who have  both been thrashing to get to this point. I’ll drag out what has become a broken record to this point in time and say it again… “Just win baby!” It will cure what ails any of these five.

Here are the current odds to win at Richmond next weekend among this group from http://www.thespread.com/nascar-articles/090412-2012-nascar-odds-federated-auto-parts-400-hamlin-a-busch-favored : Kyle Busch 9/2, Jeff Gordon 8/1, Ryan Newman 50/1, Joey Logano 60/1 and Marcos Ambrose 100/1. If I had to bet right now I think I’d take the long odds and throw down on our Australian brother, Marcos Ambrose!

 

The Definition of a “Good Guy” in NASCAR

It comes as no surprise that Dale Earnhardt didn’t win the most popular driver award voted on each year by NASCAR fans until after his untimely death. Dale was a winner. He would do whatever it took within the confines of “clean racing” to get out front late in a race and hold on, even if the car he was driving wasn’t the fastest. While Dale Sr. is the best example of the point I’m going to make,

other drivers like Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and more recently Kyle Busch have also spent time in the not too liked climes among NASCAR fans. Why? Well these guys are all winners and in NASCAR, when you consistently win you’re stepping on the toes of 42 other drivers, teams and their fans. So in a round-about way, winners are the “Bad Guys” and conversely all the drivers who are consistently also-rans are the “Good Guys”.

The 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup season will long be remembered for the number of first time winners who have graced Victory Lane and for the variety (fifteen different winners to date) of drivers waving checkered flags. The “Good Guy” ranks have taken a major hit this year…

Marcos Ambrose, since moving to the US and NASCAR to pursue his passion for auto racing, has been considered a “Good Guy” for a lot of reasons, but in no small part it was due to the fact he had been winless in 104 starts at the Sprint Cup level.

Well, all that changed yesterday on the Watkins Glen road course. The two-time Australian Super V8 champion had finally tasted victory at the world’s foremost stock car racing level. Marcos thus joined Trevor Bayne, Regan Smith, David Ragan and Paul Menard as a first time winner this season. That’s all fine and dandy, but boys you’ve all put your “Good Guy” standing in dire jeopardy. Since everyone likes first time winners, if you’ll all just calm down now and forget about winning again, you should be all right…

With four races left to qualify for the Chase, Marcos Ambrose has, by virtue of his first win, vaulted to 22nd in the 2011 Chase standings, only one measly point away from a three-way tie with Juan Pablo Montoya and Martin Truex, Jr. for 20th place. If he shows well in these last four races, there’s an outside chance he could make the Chase if he happens to post one more win and improves his point total into a top twenty standing.

This is the beauty of the new Chase format. As it stands today, Denny Hamlin, Paul Menard, Marcos and David Ragan all have one win and are either in or within striking distance of the top twenty. There should be a real scramble between these one-win drivers before it’s over.

Brad Keselowski now appears to be a lock for the Chase as his 1st place finish at Pocono (giving Brad two wins on the season) and now his 2nd place finish at the Glen have pushed the Blue Deuce all the way up to 14th in the Chase standings.

If any of this group of four happens to swipe another win (which would either solidify their position in the top twenty or get them into it) then that driver and team would almost be assured of a spot in the Chase and a chance at the championship. The problem is Menard, Ragan and now Ambrose will risk slamming their “Good Guy” rating into the dirt with that next win…