It's Richmond or Bust!

One last race to set the Chase field and it’s been like a game of “Hot Potato” while a small group of drivers vie for the 12^th and final spot. Nobody wants it! Will someone win the spot by default?

 

Just one little bump...

 

Atlanta had a potential Chaser come right down to the wire only to have his chance at the gold ring ripped out of his grasp. Jeff Gordon has been left wondering if he’s become too soft in the latter part of his racing career after not going the “bump and run” route on eventual race winner Denny Hamlin. Hamlin’s win, preventing Gordon from getting to victory lane, worked to keep his teammate Kyle Busch in the final Chase position thanks to his point total. (see http://www.thatsracin.com/2012/09/03/93843/jeff-gordon-wonders-if-hes-getting.html)

Believe it or not, there are actually 6 other drivers besides Kyle who can wind up in the cherished final Chase position.

The least likely of this group to get in is Paul Menard and without going through all the necessary things that must happen I’ll just say it’s like a snowball’s chance… A win and some horrendous finishes by top drivers is all that can make Paul’s day a happy one…



Dinner at SB's house...

What the???

Poor Carl Edwards has enough on his plate just dealing with the 42 other drivers and teams he faces each week, but Beagle Voodoo is like the final straw. Going into Atlanta Carl was very optimistic with his chances to win on a track where his had past success. He told more than one interviewer he expected to win and assume the 12^th Chase position. What happened? That darned Beagle played in and blew up Carl’s engine! Carl still has a long shot at the Chase but does anyone really want to bet on him? Somebody (Kristen? Sal? Gene? Phil?) needs to corner Cousin Carl, tell him what has been going on, give him the Speed Beagle’s phone number and tell him to formally apologize and not to allow this to continue! Like Paul Menard, Carl must win and have terrible finishes from drivers who don’t normally go that route in order to make the Chase.

And the beat goes on with the one-win drivers… If Joey Logano, Marcos Ambrose, Ryan Newman, Jeff Gordon or Kyle Busch win in Richmond they’re in… Simple, right?

Here’s the rundown on these five drivers’ results across the last 10 races at Richmond:

Driver------------------Wins---------------Top 5’s---------------Top 10’s-------------Average Finish

Kyle Busch--------------4---------------------7------------------------8-------------------------5.4

Jeff Gordon-------------0---------------------4------------------------7------------------------11.1

Ryan Newman---------0---------------------1------------------------5------------------------12.6

Marcos Ambrose------0---------------------1------------------------2------------------------16.1

Joey Logano------------0---------------------1------------------------1------------------------17.6

Here’s how these five drivers were ranked and performed in the previous four races in this series:

Driver------------------Rank--W G--Rank--Mich--Rank--Bristol--Rank—Atlanta—Ave. Finish

Kyle Busch--------------1-------7------1--------13-----1-------6--------2---------6-----------8

Ryan Newman---------2------11-----3---------28-----2------36-------3--------35---------27.5

Jeff Gordon-------------3------21-----2----------8-----3--------3-------1---------2----------8.5

Joey Logano------------4------32-----4---------31-----5-------8-------5---------18--------22.3

Marcos Ambrose------*-------1-----5-----------5-----4-------5-------4---------17---------7 (!)

*Marcos was winless going into Watkins Glen and not ranked but just look at who has out-performed the others in terms of average finish through this four race period leading up to Richmond.

It's not impossible...

Considering what has occurred over the course of the previous four races will any of the original group of four drivers step up? For the fourth time in the five races analyzed Kyle Busch stands most likely to win as the only driver to win at Richmond in the last 10 races and he’s done it four times! His average finish is less than half that of the next best driver… Jeff Gordon has to be characterized as the hottest driver in the group with a second and third place finish in Atlanta and Bristol respectively. Marcos fell off of his hot pace at Atlanta finishing seventeenth but he seems to perform well on short tracks. Then there’s Ryan Newman and Joey Logano who have  both been thrashing to get to this point. I’ll drag out what has become a broken record to this point in time and say it again… “Just win baby!” It will cure what ails any of these five.

Here are the current odds to win at Richmond next weekend among this group from http://www.thespread.com/nascar-articles/090412-2012-nascar-odds-federated-auto-parts-400-hamlin-a-busch-favored : Kyle Busch 9/2, Jeff Gordon 8/1, Ryan Newman 50/1, Joey Logano 60/1 and Marcos Ambrose 100/1. If I had to bet right now I think I’d take the long odds and throw down on our Australian brother, Marcos Ambrose!

 

A Hot Time In Hotlanta?

Who is going to burn Atlanta down?

Last week’s bombshell of a race at Bristol sure did bring out the best on the hostility front. Fan interest and viewership are up! Bruton must be smilin’ like the Cheshire Cat! (and so is race winner Denny Hamlin!)

So we march on to Atlanta once again with a group of drivers hoping to launch themselves into the glory of the Chase. There has been some shuffling among this group thanks to Bristol’s summer race on the revamped half mile concrete oval. Kyle Busch, on the strength of his 6^th place finish and 38 points, coupled with Ryan Newman’s unfortunate wreck that sent his team home early with a 36^th place finish and only 8 points, moved up to 13^th place and into the lead for the final Chase opening. Although Kyle wasn’t credited with leading a single lap at Bristol, a track he has tamed many times, I’m thinkin’ he’s pleased with these results but the fact remains any of this group of six drivers with a shot at 12^th place in the Chase can, just by virtue of a single win, either here in Atlanta or next week in Richmond, sew up the last seat at the dance.

Carl Edwards was oh so close to winning at Bristol after not stopping for fuel and tires on a caution with 85 laps to go. The strategy had him leading late in the race for 45 laps but alas (J) fresh tires and a splash was the way to go as Carl got passed then went dry. The 99 Ford team ended the night in 22^nd place garnering only 23 points. Carl remains in 12^th place without a win and a withering lead now only 5 points ahead of Kyle… Although I like them taking the risk late in the race and rolling the dice for another caution to pop up, the bottom line from this risky decision now equates to desperation time for the 99…

Jeff Gordon also elbowed his way past Newman to take over 14^th place, 15 points behind JGR’s 18. Jeff, powered by his great HMS 24 team, put together a strong effort coming in 3^rd at Bristol.

Now in 15^th place, all is not lost for the SHR 39 even though Ryan Newman gave up a lot of ground on the point’s side at Bristol. All you Ryan Newman fans have to do is just revisit Al Davis’ favorite saying…

Marcos Ambrose also moved up with his 5^th place Bristol finish adding 40 points to his total. Marcos is now in 16^th place and really picking up the pace as we head into turn four. Suddenly he’s trailing Kyle Busch for the 12^th place in the Chase by only 28 points! If he keeps the pressure on there’s no telling what might happen!

Joey Logano entered the Cup race at Bristol full of confidence after running off with the Nationwide win at Bristol race a day earlier and although he turned in a very good effort finishing in 8^th place, he’s so far down on the point’s side that a win is all that will cure his ills. Joey continues to languish in 18^th place not even within hailing distance of Paul Menard in 17^th place.

Bring on Atlanta!

Here is a quick rundown on these 6 drivers and their experiences down in Peach Country by order of most successful to least over their last 10 races:

Driver------------------Wins---------------Top 5’s---------------Top 10’s-------------Average Finish

Jeff Gordon-------------1---------------------3------------------------7-------------------------8.1

Carl Edwards-----------1---------------------5------------------------7------------------------14.5

Kyle Busch--------------1---------------------3------------------------3------------------------16.9

Ryan Newman---------0---------------------0------------------------2------------------------19.6

Marcos Ambrose------0---------------------0------------------------1------------------------22.0

Joey Logano------------0---------------------0------------------------0------------------------26.7

This is the first track I’ve examined in this series of races leading up to the 2012 Sprint Cup Chase where Kyle Busch hasn’t had the best record going in. Is it any coincidence that Atlanta is yet another of Bruton Smith’s 1.5 mile cookie cutter tracks? And along those same lines, is it any wonder why Jeff Gordon does well here?

Will this be the race where one of this group of almost also-rans knocks it out of the park? Or will we have to march on to Richmond to finally set the Chase field…

My best case scenario? Have one of these drivers notch their second win at Atlanta, move on to Richmond, full of optimism as the heir apparent to the Chase and then have another driver with a higher point total knock them off the perch at the last possible moment! Now that would really get the juices flowing! It would certainly give us something to consider since I’m afraid the 10 race 2012 Chase will only seem anti-climactic after what happened last year.

Bristol Baby!

And then there were 3 races to go before the Chase field is set...

What’s interesting is that we still don’t have a single chaser assured of a place in the field with only 3 races to go. The top of the points standings keeps getting jostled about. Last week’s points leader (Jimmie Johnson) fell clear to 4^th after losing his engine on a fast Michigan track just when it looked like the force (and the win) was with him… Greg Biffle was there to regain the points lead he had earlier in the season as he held off Brad Keselowski for the win. By the way, Bad Brad continues to look like the real deal as the Chase approaches. Too bad he and JJ appear to be friends. A Brad / JJ rivalry might really be something and somebody’s got to challenge the 48 team that otherwise looks poised to run away with it's 6^th championship…

While the top of the points standings seems to keep getting rearranged each week the drivers who are still in the race for the 12^th and final seat at the Chase table seem to be stuck with no one stepping up to claim the prize.

Last week’s analysis of drivers with the best chance to make the Chase pointed out that for the second week in a row Kyle Busch should have had the best finish based on historical statistics. Although Kyle had his struggles finishing in 13^th place he actually was slightly better than his 13.8 place average finish at Michigan. He picked up 31 points and maintained 14^th place overall in the points standings.

Just like Kyle, Ryan Newman entered and left Michigan without changing his position in the Chase remaining in 13^th place overall with a Top 10 finish coming in 8^th. Ryan did stretch his lead over Kyle by 15 points to 680 vs. 669 for Busch. As it stands right now Newman is in with one win and his point total...

Jeff Gordon had a tough outing in Michigan finishing 28^th with in-race and engine problems ending up with a sore finger from pointing it at everyone else as if it wasn’t his problem… Jeff, man up! The 24 team slipped a place in the standings as Paul Mennard moved up into 15^{th .} Jeff only picked up 16 points Sunday.

Marcos Ambrose, of the five one-win drivers with a shot to make the Chase, had the best finish at Michigan coming in 5^th and picking up 39 points. Problem is Marcos remained in 17^th place overall in the standings.

Finally Joey Logano remains in 18^th place overall after having a dismal day at Michigan where he came in 31^st only completing 132 laps of a possible 201 thanks to Juan Montoya. First, around mid-race, Joey and Juan were running side by side when Juan got loose and used the 20 car for his salvation. This move caused Joey to run up and smash into the wall. After another 50 racing laps passed the 20 was out of the garage and back on the track when Juan Pablo found the orange 20 once again forcing it into the wall a second time and again into the garage for heavy repair work. Joey was back out when the checkers flew only to scrape up 13 points. What did Joey do to you, Montoya???

If you think about it, all this talk about points is really fruitless. One of these guys needs to grab another win or Carl Edwards needs to do something he hasn't done since last season and defy Beagle voodoo by swiping a win and getting into the Chase by virtue of one win and more points than these other five drivers.

Who shines at Bristol? I think we all know the answer to that…

In his last 10 Cup starts in Thunder Valley Kyle Busch has 4 wins, 5 Top 5’s, 7 Top 10’s and an average finish of 8.7 but the way he’s been doing this season I’m going to say all bets are off at Bristol. The odds say he ought to win but will he?

Ryan Newman has the second best historical numbers at Bristol in his last 10 starts. Ryan has had 7 top 10 finishes and an average of 11.1 since 2007. In 21 Cup starts at Bristol in Ryan’s career his best finish was a 2^nd place way back in 2004. Ryan, you need to get ‘r done!

For the sake of comparison, Carl Edwards’ record at Bristol is very good. Cousin Carl in his last 10 starts has 2 wins, 3 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s and an average finish of 11.7. If Carl’s gonna do it, this just might be the place…

I wonder what Junior's thinking... No maybe not...

 

Poor Jeff Gordon…  He’d be all right if there weren’t any other cars on the track. Okay, enough of that. How’s Jeff done in his last 10 starts at Bristol? How about 3 Top 5’s and an average finish of 13.9? Not too shabby... In his career Jeff has 4 wins on the half mile concrete track but the last one was back in 2002. Did anyone else see Rusty Wallace’s take on Gordon this week? I don’t usually go along with much Rusty has to say but this time he nailed it. He talked about how involved most drivers are with their crews, a whole team working to win. Rusty claims Jeff isn’t that way anymore, kinda like he’s on cruise control while everyone else is thrashing for the win. If true, that says a lot…

Marcos needs to pay close attention to those immortal words spoken by the NFL’s Al Davis… “JUST WIN BABY!” Marcos, you listenin’?  Can you do that? I know it’s a tall order, man, especially at Bristol, but wouldn’t that be cool? In seven Cup starts at Bristol Marcos has a 3^rd place finish in 2009 and a 10^th place finish in last season’s August race. Couple that with an average finish of 18.14 and the indications are that there’s a chance and I guess that’s all you can ask for right now…

Joey Logano has not performed well in Thunder Valley at all. His best finish in seven Cup starts has been a 13^th place in last season’s August race. Joey has an average finish of 24.4… What can I say? Once again, here is a driver who just needs to win and it will make everything else immaterial. Is it in you Joey?

Is there really special power in Beagle voodoo? Will Carl break the spell?

What about Kyle? Can he climb out of his funk?

 Will Ryan make our own famous Cord Rotz proud?

Can Jeff pull off another weather win?

What about Marcos? It looks like he’s finally getting comfortable on America’s ovals. Can he really pump up our Aussie fans?

Logano makes a good dark horse. Will he surprise us all?

Here comes Thunder Valley! Who wants it???

This is good stuff... Edwards verses Stewart, One race, One championship

It ain't plagiarism if ya own up to it!


This is good stuff and I thought we'd all like to comment on it here...

Trash talk between Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards spices up championship race

By Bob Pockrass (for scenedaily.com) / Thursday, November 17, 2011

MIAMI BEACH, Fla. – Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards have a healthy respect for each other but that didn’t stop them from trading a few barbs on the brink of their showdown for the Sprint Cup championship.
Stewart, winner of four races in the Chase For The Sprint Cup, remains confident and almost cocky as he sits three points behind Edwards and knows that a win Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway could earn him the title.
Edwards, meanwhile, is acting more like a seasoned champion – he’s not while Stewart has won two Cup titles – by displaying confidence but not hitting below the belt.
When asked during the championship contenders news conference Thursday if he would wreck Edwards for the title, Stewart didn’t hold back.
“I’d wreck my mom to win a championship. … I respect him as a driver, but this isn't about friendships this weekend,” Stewart said. “This is a war. This is a battle. This is for a national championship. It's no-holds-barred this weekend. I didn't come this far to be one step away from it and let it slip away, so we're going to go for it.”
Edwards, sitting next to Stewart at the time, replied: “Did you say something?”
Stewart then said: “You can come visit my trophy in the room at Vegas [for the banquet] when you come out there.”
Edwards then mocked Stewart: “He's got the talking part figured out. Problem is, you haven't led the points yet this year, have you?”
Actually Stewart did lead the standings for two weeks earlier this year. Edwards, however, has led for 21 weeks, including the last six. Stewart didn’t need to know that to answer Edwards.
“They say there's talkers and doers,” said Stewart. “I've done this twice.”
And then Edwards had more: “That's the funny thing. I've listened to you talk a lot today. You've talked a lot about your past successes. That is very respectable. And truly, all joking aside, that will make it more fun if we're able to beat you. It will make me more proud.”
Throughout the day, Stewart played up his nothing-to-lose theme.
“He was doing a pretty good acting job up there today,” Stewart said after the news conference. “He’s a lot more nervous than he lets on. But he’s got a lot of class and he’s got a lot of character.
“He’s a strong person, but I don’t think he’s as strong as he wants to lead everyone to believe he is going into this weekend.”
Edwards swears he’s at peace with whatever happens.
“The things that are real important to me are not really what everyone is talking about,” Edwards said. “The things that are important to me are going out and doing my very best, enjoying it and having fun.
“That’s how I feel about this week and about this race. … This would be the hugest accomplishment of my career, that goes without saying. I have learned to temper the want for that so it doesn’t hurt me.”

If verbal sparring counts for anything then Tony's gonna win hands down!

Source: http://www.scenedaily.com/news/articles/sprintcupseries/Trash_talk_between_Tony_Stewart_Carl_Edwards_spices_up_championship_race.html

And The Winner Is...

Prior to NASCAR announcing their changes to the Sprint Cup points scoring procedures last winter I made the case for a much greater reward for drivers and teams that actually win the races. The thought being that it would act to stimulate competition at the front of the pack and diminish the benefits of playing it safe and shooting for consistency.

Today, with two races left in the 2011 Chase my fears have been confirmed as the top driver has a grand total of 1 win on the season. This while the second place driver has 4 wins and on top of that, all 4 wins have come in the 8 Chase races so far this season. Now how on God’s green earth is the guy with 4 wins in the Chase not in the lead?

I guess the name of the game still excludes winning…

A Harbinger of Things to Come?

With 5 more intermediate sized track races left in 2011 and all of them being in the Chase, who among the Chase drivers has been doing the best on that size track?

Given his fantastic win yesterday on Atlanta Motor Speedway’s 1.5 mile track you’d think Jeff Gordon would be at the top of this season’s list, but think again…

Here are the top 12 intermediate track drivers through 7 races…

Note: Drivers in the Chase are in green while drivers in the hunt are in yellow.

-----------------------After 7 Intermediate Track Races in 2011
----------Chase---------------------------Ave.-----Total----Total--------------Average
Rank----Rank----Driver----------------Finish ---Points—Earnings---------Points
1---------3---------Carl Edwards--------5.29-----280------$1,526,562------40.00
2---------10-------Tony Stewart--------8.71-----254------$1,227,256------36.29
3---------12-------Denny Hamlin-------8.57-----252------$1,102,400------36.00
4---------5---------Matt Kenseth------10.29 ----245------$1,372,552------35.00
5---------7---------Kurt Busch----------10.29 ----242------$1,063,925------34.57
6---------11-------Brad Keselowski ---11.43 ----236------$1,065,506------33.71
7---------1---------Jimmie Johnson ---11.29 ----230------$1,155,977------32.86
8---------6---------Kevin Harvick------12.71-----224------$1,263,227------32.00
9---------9---------Dale Jr. -------------12.71-----221--------$857,500-------31.57
10-------15-------Greg Biffle----------13.71-----215--------$853,825--------30.71
11-------21-------Marcos Ambrose-13.71------215--------$974,337--------30.71
12-------8---------Ryan Newman----13.43------215-----$1,008,560---------30.71

Other 2011 Chasers not on this list? How about 2nd place Kyle Busch! Gordon comes in at number 14 with an average finish of 15.14 on this list while Kyle is clear down at 18th with an average finish of 19th…

Given this information I’ve gotta conclude that all the sudden talk about Gordon being a threat to dethrone “5 Time” is just so much hot air and the same goes for Kyle Busch possibly challenging the reigning champion.

Look at the top of that list… There’s the driver most likely to unseat JJ.

So how, you might ask, do these drivers do on the short tracks? Well, there are four short track races in the Chase and so far seven of the eight pre-Chase short track races have been run this season.

Here’s the current 2011 ranking:

---------------------------------After 7 Short Track Races
----------Chase-----------------------------Average---Total------Total--------Average
Rank----Rank-----Driver-----------------Finish------Points----Earnings ----Points
1----------1---------Jimmie Johnson-----6.14--------272------$1,069,555---38.86
2----------2---------Kyle Busch------------8.71--------259------$1,218,654----37.00
3----------5---------Matt Kenseth-------10------------244------$1,038,136----34.86
4----------6---------Kevin Harvick-------10.86--------237--------$999,326-----33.86
5---------3----------Carl Edwards--------11.71--------231-------$989,629------33.00
6---------8----------Ryan Newman------12.14--------231------$1,020,825-----33.00
7---------12--------Denny Hamlin-------12------------226------$1,019,408-----32.29
8---------9----------Dale Earnhardt Jr.--12.14--------225--------$712,086------32.14
9---------4----------Jeff Gordon----------12.86--------222------$1,053,777------31.71
10--------7---------Kurt Busch------------13.43--------215--------$866,775------30.71
11-------21--------Marcos Ambrose----15------------204--------$864,179------29.14
12-------17--------Kasey Kahne----------15.71--------201--------$791,065------28.71

Carl Edwards is running along at 5th on the short tracks and there’s the reigning champion back in the Cat Bird Seat… Note that Tony Stewart and Brad Keselowski aren’t in the top 12 on 2011 Shot Tracks. Tony comes in at number 20 on this list averaging 18.29 on his finishes while Brad is 22nd with an average finish of 19.57.

There is only 1 long track race on the 2011 Chase schedule even though there have been 9 pre-Chase races on race tracks that are two miles long or longer this season (?). Regardless of that gross oversight, here are the 2011 Long Track average rankings:

----------------------------------------After 9 Long Track Races
----------Chase------------------------------Average-----Total----Total-------------Average
Rank----Rank----Driver-------------------Finish--------Points---Earnings--------Points
1---------2---------Kyle Busch--------------7.78---------338----$1,876,957-------42.25
2---------4---------Jeff Gordon-------------9.67---------318----$1,768,087------39.75
3---------20-------Paul Menard-----------11.11--------304----$1,375,788------38.00
4---------1---------Jimmie Johnson -------11.78-------298----$1,874,162------37.25
5---------10-------Tony Stewart-----------12 -----------292----$1,476,735------36.50
6---------8---------Ryan Newman---------12.44--------292----$1,478,438------36.50
7---------5---------Matt Kenseth----------13------------284----$1,640,037------35.50
8---------6---------Kevin Harvick-----------13.44-------283----$1,738,012------35.38
9---------14-------Clint Bowyer------------13.89-------277----$1,573,885------34.63
10--------7--------Kurt Busch---------------13.89-------277----$1,785,626------34.63
11-------19-------Mark Martin-------------13.67-------276----$1,185,888------34.50
12-------9---------Dale Jr.-------------------13.89--------275---$1,239,338------34.38

So who of the chasers is not included in the top 12 Long Track ranking? None other than Carl Edwards, Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin, but these guys come out smelling like a rose since there’s only the one long track race in the Chase!

Here’s your 2011 NASCAR Champion if the 2011 track type averages hold true and Dale Earnhardt Jr., Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin make it into the Chase field:

-----------------------Start
Driver---------------Points--Short------Intermediate----Long------Total
Carl Edwards-------2003-----132-----------200----------27.78-----2362.78
Jimmie Johnson---2003-----155.44--------164.3-------37.25-----2359.99
Matt Kenseth------2006-----139.44--------175---------35.5------2355.94
Kevin Harvick------2009-----135.44--------160---------35.38-----2339.82
Kyle Busch----------2012-----148------------131.45-----42.25-----2333.70
Kurt Busch----------2003-----122.84--------172.85-----34.63-----2333.32
Denny Hamlin------2000-----129.16--------180---------23.78-----2332.94
Ryan Newman------2003-----132-----------153.55------36.5------2325.05
Jeff Gordon----------2009-----126.84-------149.3-------39.75-----2324.89
Tony Stewart--------2000-----103.44-------181.45------36.5------2321.39
Dale Earnhardt Jr.--2000-----128.56-------157.85------34.38-----2320.79
Brad Keselowski----2000-----100-----------168.55------26.67-----2295.22

Carl Edwards wins by less than 3 points! Gotta love those 1.5 mile tracks!

Here are how the 2011 top 10 finishing drivers and all the 2011 Chasers did on Alabama’s Superspeedway Talladega track earlier this season:

Talladega April 17, 2011

Finish---Driver----------Pts

1--------Jimmie Johnson--47

2--------Clint Bowyer------44

3--------Jeff Gordon-------42

4--------Dale Jr.-------------41

5--------Kevin Harvick----40

6--------Carl Edwards----39

7--------Greg Biffle-------38

8--------Mark Martin-----37

9--------David Gilliland---35

10-------Joey Logano-----35

17-------Tony Stewart----27

18-------Kurt Busch-------27

23-------Denny Hamlin---21

25-------Ryan Newman---20

33-------Brad Keselowski-12

35-------Kyle Busch--------10

36-------Matt Kenseth-----9

Remember Jr. pushing JJ across the line?

If the Talladega Chase race matches the April 17th Talladega Race results we’re going to have to change JJ’s nickname to “6 Time”!
*****************************************************
Why aren't there more long tracks in the Chase? Seems to me there's a perfect split among the various venues for the Chase... 3 Short, 3 Intermediate and 3 Long Tracks along with 1 measly road course... The next step is to put the Chase races on a rotating basis from year to year. If you truly want to see who the top drivers and teams are, throw them some curves from one year to the next. Prior to Atlanta's Cup race I saw an interview with Chad Knaus in which he stated the 48 team had all their cars prepped and ready for the Chase and let the audience know those cars were better than what we've seen JJ driving during the regular season. If the Chase tracks rotated from year to year these top money teams wouldn't have such an advantage...

NASCAR’s Premier Bully

Yahoo’s racing commentator Jay Busbee writes that he “really fights with pretty much everybody”.

The Sporting News had a feature article last May stating that he has a history of battles with the entire Sprint Cup top 10.

Scene Daily ran an article in December of 2009 that chronicled the best driver confrontations from 2000-2009 and this driver was named in three of the eight driver confrontations referred to.

So who is this bully? If you’re a true NASCAR fan it should come as no surprise. Kevin Harvick has had at least one confrontation each year since he took over Richard Childress’ Good Wrench Chevrolet after the 2001 Daytona 500 and it hasn’t been just limited to drivers with other teams / owners.

The two faces of Kevin Harvick... Happy and Bully...

Last season Harvick became so upset with Childress teammate Jeff Burton’s driving practices during the Martinsville Chase race he expressed his displeasure in no uncertain terms over the radio during a late in-race caution. At the time Kevin was in 3rd place in the Chase while Burton was on the outside looking in.

After the race Kevin passed off his public comments as “just racin”, but Jeff Burton wouldn’t hear of it. Here’s what Jeff had to say: “I don't understand what he is mad at, I think he is just wound up and racing for a championship. I can assure you I didn't do anything wrong and I would do it again a thousand times. Because if what I did was wrong, then I will just quit racing.”
Then Jeff made these really telling comments: "There will come a point when he (Harvick) realizes that everybody in the world is not against him. And every time it's a conflict he is involved. And you would think over the amount of years that he has done it, that he would get the hint that he is always in the middle of it and maybe sometimes if he just backed up a little bit and caught his breath, he would be OK. I'm not out to harm him. I am a teammate of his and I am trying to help him and there comes a point where he needs to just catch his breath and realize that it's my race track too.''

**********************************************************************
Here’s a sample of the many confrontations this man has been involved in:
Versus Greg Biffle, Bristol, 2002… A post-race verbal confrontation boiled into a physical one as Kevin Harvick tried to get Biffle in a head lock. Harvick was fined.

Versus Ricky Rudd, Richmond, 2003… A screaming, yelling Harvick stomps on the roof of Rudd’s car after late-race crash. A near-riot breaks out on pit road.
“Kevin was [ticked off], what do you say?” – Harvick team owner Richard Childress
“I don’t know. He’s got that little yap-yap mouth.” – Rudd, on what Harvick said.

Versus Ryan Newman, 2003… While Newman was piling up eight wins, Harvick accused Newman and his team of cheating to get better fuel mileage. An unfounded allegation…

Versus Matt Kenseth, Pocono, 2004… They spun each other out while under caution and were subsequently fined. This set off running commentary on both sides.

Versus Jimmie Johnson, Daytona, 2005… After Harvick wrecked Johnson and several other cars in a preseason race, Johnson said "It's a shame. He just tore up six or seven good racecars. I hope Childress either fires him or NASCAR does something about him, because this is ridiculous -- absolutely ridiculous."

Versus Kurt Busch, Atlanta, 2006… “I’ll tell you what I think,” Harvick said. “He’s a cocky, arrogant punk… I’d still like to whip his ass. Before the year’s over, he’ll make a fool out of (car owner) Roger Penske.”
Through a team spokesman, Busch declined comment on Harvick's statements.

Versus Dale Earnhardt, Jr., 2007… Harvick called out Dale Jr.’s former team owner, Teresa Earnhardt, calling her an absentee owner while Earnhardt still drove for her.

Versus Tony Stewart, Indianapolis Brickyard 400, 2007… “He’s the first one to complain about not getting room on the race track and he’s the first one to not give any,” Harvick said of Stewart after being bumped out of the way by Stewart on his way to the win.

Versus Juan Pablo Montoya, Watkins Glen, 2007… On-track incident leads to shoving and helmet-grabbing between two hotheads. NASCAR officials forced to break it up.
“I was talking about kicking his ass.” – Harvick
“I said it was my fault and he started shouting and grabbing me. I don’t appreciate that.” – Montoya.

Versus Carl Edwards, Talladega, Charlotte, 2008… Snipping back and forth after a Talladega wreck leads to a mysterious note followed by a physical confrontation in the Charlotte garage. In the confrontation Edwards makes like a wrestling star as he applies a choke-hold to Harvick.
The note from Edwards to Harvick read, “Kevin, thanks for [criticizing] me on TV. I was really trying to screw up everyone’s day! Love, Carl.” Edwards then went on to say, “I have absolutely no respect for Kevin Harvick. I think he's a bad person. That’s what I think and I’ve told him.”
“You just gotta be careful who you wanna pick a fight with.” – Harvick.

Strangely, we haven’t heard any more out of this feud.

Versus Denny Hamlin, 2010… Harvick intentionally ran into him during practice after Hamlin publicly criticized Richard Childress Racing.

Versus Joey Logano, 2010… The two traded paint prompting Logano to make his now famous post-race comment that Harvick’s wife “wears the firesuit in the family.”

Versus Kyle Busch, Darlington, 2011… Angry over an incident with less than four laps remaining, Kevin Harvick said later that he wanted to “beat the piss” out of Kyle Busch. There was a pit road incident that Harvick instigated and then a confrontation in the garage. The next week in Dover the two were on the carpet with NASCAR. Asked after their meeting with NASCAR officials when he thinks he and Busch will be able to get along, Harvick stated, “Never.” And Busch agreed.

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Considering Kevin Harvick’s checkered past I found it very interesting to read a satire on the Kevin versus Kyle debacle. Here’s a couple of excerpts from the article entitled “NASCAR to Kyle Busch: Bullying of Kevin Harvick Must Stop” (!)

“A teary-eyed Kevin Harvick said he has been so stressed by the bullying he has received from Kyle Busch that he is often afraid to shave.” (Hilarious!)

“Kevin Harvick has accused Busch of being a bully for much of the season.” (!)

And finally these: Harvick and Busch almost came to blows earlier in the season at Daytona. Busch was walking by Harvick just prior to race time and said, “Hey Harvick, how did you ever get Jimmie John’s to sponsor you? You’re so slow I don’t think you could even qualify as a delivery boy driver.”

At Bristol, Busch left a pair of reading glasses and a note on the seat of Harvick’s car. In the note Busch volunteered to help “Old man Harvick” read a map of the Bristol track so that Harvick wouldn’t get lost going around.

Finally, this last week at the Showtime Southern 500 after Busch suckered Harvick into getting out of his car, Busch took off and pushed Harvick’s empty car into the wall and then drove away laughing so loud it could be heard in the stands. Harvick collapsed on the track and began to cry so hard he fogged up his helmet and had to be helped from the track. (!)

Like I said… It’s a satirical look at the current “hottest feud” in NASCAR inspired by Mr. Harvick.

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I was taught the best way to deal with a bully is to call their bluff. Once the bully knows you aren’t going to allow them to push you around they’re just cowardly enough to back off. I think that’s the lesson Carl Edwards taught everyone concerning Kevin Harvick and now Kyle Busch needs to take a step in that direction as well.

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Kevin Harvick came on the scene under terrible circumstances and made the best of his chance being named Rookie of the Year in 2001. What first appeared to be a very promising career has been eaten up with a “me against the world” mindset that apparently can’t be righted.

We’ve all seen rookies break into Cup racing who at first are in awe of their situation and then have to face the fact that it’s a dog eat dog world in this business. They learn sometimes they have to defend themselves to gain the respect of their peers. It’s a process that eventually yields the desired result.

In Kevin Harvick’s case, he’s pushed his over-reacting in tough situations to an extreme. He’s ended up losing whatever respect he might have had among his fellow competitors.

A very telling moment came during the confrontation Kevin initiated at the entrance to Darlington’s pit road by stopping Kyle Busch and then stepping from his car to try and punch Kyle in the face. The television director switched cameras to one focused on Kevin’s wife sitting atop the number 29’s pit box. Delana, watching a television monitor, had both her hands on her cheeks while slowly shaking her head in an unmistakable “Oh no, not again…” manner.

Yes, Delana, again… And who’s next on the Kevin Harvick “hit” parade?

References:
Jay Busbee:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nascar/blog/from_the_marbles/post/Kevin-Harvick-really-fights-with-pretty-much-eve?urn=nascar-wp1153
The Sporting News:
http://aol.sportingnews.com/nascar/story/2011-05-10/kevin-harvicks-history-of-battles-with-the-entire-cup-top-10
Scene Daily: http://www.scenedaily.com/news/articles/sprintcupseries/DECADE_IN_REVIEW_NASCARs_best_confrontations_2000-2009.html
iRaceFanNews:
http://iracefannews.com/2011/nascar-to-kyle-busch-bullying-of-kevin-harvick-must-stop

For Carl Edwards, Silence Feeds the Fire

Carl and the Gibson guitar

I’m wondering how long Carl Edwards can keep mum about his intentions for the future. The current Sprint Cup point leader, just coming off a sweep of the Nationwide Series’ 2011 Nashville races, continues to be coy with NASCAR’s media types. This is doing nothing but stir the writers and commentators into an ever –growing frenzy. Maybe Carl likes riding the whirlwind. I think I’d get tired of it real fast.

Roush-Fenway Racing president Steve Newman says, "We have constant conversations with Carl, I still remain cautiously optimistic that we'll get something done, but as we've talked about before, the process that we're going through, we want to make sure that we have everything in order going forward and Carl's main focus is on making sure he's going to a place where he can win championships.” Both Roush-Fenway and Ford don’t want to lose Edwards so I suspect the dollar amount needed to entice him to stay must be going up while Carl remains non-committal. Knowing how tight Jack Roush is, will Ford fill out the amount required to keep Edwards driving cars adorned with the blue oval? Roush will have at least two good options to fill a potential void if Edwards does leave. As you can imagine, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. or Trevor Bayne would be more than happy to step in and either will drive for a lot less than Carl will be making.

It was recently announced Roush-Fenway is losing one of their primary sponsors after the 2011 season. Seagram’s Crown Royal is pulling out from Matt Kenseth’s number 17 Ford. This while UPS (a Ragan sponsor) and AFLAC (an Edwards sponsor) are also unsigned. Are they ready to bail too? It makes me wonder if any of Carl’s sponsors (Fastenall, Subway, AFLAC, Scott’s Ortho) would also leave RFR if Carl moves on? I know it depends on the contract terms as to when that might happen.

So, if Carl’s sponsors are stuck on him and leave over time, old Jack Roush may have to do some fancy footwork to keep a four car Sprint Cup team in place, especially if the other RFR sponsors also begin pulling the plug.

These sponsor concerns make me then wonder about the rumors that Carl would drive the Home Depot sponsored number 20 for J.R. Gibbs if that’s the deal. How does he do that if AFLAC or his other sponsors follow him? I’m sure these are the kinds of problems Joe Gibbs would love to deal with. The addition of Carl’s sponsors to JGR could make a four car Cup team possible.

Concerning Carl, Joe Gibbs has confirmed on more than one occasion he’s very interested in bringing
Carl on board. JGR has not had a champion since Tony Stewart won his second title in 2005, which incidentally was the last time a non-Lowes sponsored car won NASCAR’s Cup championship. Another consideration is that Toyota still hasn’t had a Cup champion. Couple that fact with Home Depot’s desire to unseat Lowes and you’ve got two pretty powerful sources of funding potentially available for JGR to entice an Edwards’ switch.

Finally, if Edwards were to make the switch from RFR/Ford to JGR/Toyota how would that affect Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano? I think good things would come out of the added competition concerning Kyle and Denny but I’m not so sure about Logano. I can see Logano falling into a funk that might only be solved by leaving JGR.

With all this speculation swirling around where Carl Edwards is concerned, there’s one thing that’s certain: The longer Carl keeps his mouth shut the greater the odds are that a change is coming…

Grist for the NASCAR Rumor Mill

The talk started a few weeks back. Now with the announcement that Red Bull is planning to pull out of NASCAR at the end of the 2011 season, the speculation has kicked into high gear concerning who is going where prior to 2012.

First off, if it’s true about Red Bull, Brian Vickers will be looking for a new ride. Based on the fact that Red Bull bought out Ginn Racing a couple of years back, talk is now swirling that a new investor may step forward and take over the operation. Who might do such a thing has led to rumors that Mark Martin could be interested in leading a group to buy the team but as recently as yesterday Martin squelched that rumor stating in an interview on WindTunnel that he has no interest in owning a team. Then there’s talk that Red Bull’s general manager Jay Frye might try to line up an investor group to take over the organization. If something like that happens then Vickers may not have to leave. If a strong enough group steps forward and they remain a two car operation, then there will be a Sprint Cup ride available since Kasey Kahne is moving to Hendrick Motorsports next year. Here again there’s speculation that Martin would be a logical choice to move into this new team. Another rumor has Carl Edwards, who for some reason (more money?) hasn’t re-upped with Roush-Fenway, being the lead man in a buyout of Red Bull. This seems like a stretch to me, but who knows? Why hasn’t Carl followed right along with Greg Biffle and got a deal done with Jack Roush?

Speaking of Edwards, his lack of activity on a new contract has led to a lot of conjecture. One popular rumor that I can’t fathom has Joe Gibbs signing Cousin Carl and putting him in the Home Depot number 20 Toyota and either cutting Joey Logano loose or going to a four car Sprint Cup organization. This has been fueled by talk that Home Depot isn’t happy playing second fiddle to Lowes and their five time champion Jimmie Johnson. Now I have to admit Carl strikes me as being a do-it-yourself type of guy and would be much better suited to representing a company such as Home Depot while Joey is better suited to what, video games? All that talk about Joe Gibbs Racing makes me think Carl might have started the rumor to give himself leverage in negotiations with Roush. Now that strikes me as feasible. Roush has called Edwards a “Rock Star” so maybe Carl’s shooting for rock star wages (!) and Roush is sorry he ever said such a thing. Here again, who knows?

The gossip about Logano possibly being moved out of the Home Depot ride may cool now that he’s finally showing signs of living up to his “Sliced Bread” moniker with JGR. He’s still one of the youngest drivers on the circuit and I expect Gibbs to hang with the guy.

Based on his success, or lack thereof, across the 2011 Sprint Cup season while driving top quality Hendrick Motorsports equipment I have to think Mark Martin is done at the Cup level. Maybe he’ll get back into Nationwide and try to preserve his lead in career wins at that level.

Another top flight driver who has been rumored to possibly be on the move is Clint Boyer. There was talk not too long ago that Clint might be interested in taking over the number 4 Toyota with Red Bull, but that’s all gone away with the Associated Press release last week that Red Bull is done with NASCAR. Boyer strikes me as the type to be an organization’s lead driver and that’s not going to happen in the Childress organization as long as Kevin Harvick is there. So will Boyer move? He’s stated his prime concern is to stay put with Childress.


Then there’s Juan Pablo Montoya and Ryan Newman who both have their deals up for negotiation this year with Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing and Stewart-Haas Racing respectively. I’ve got to say that whether Juan wants to move on or not, I don’t know of much interest for the man anywhere other than with Chip Ganassi. If he stays in NASCAR he’ll be with EGR… As for Newman, I think he knows where he’s well off and that’s with Stewart-Haas.

With all these rumors being kicked around I have to say it looks like the best course for most of these guys is to stay put.

In another vein, there continues to be a question concerning Danica Patrick.
Will she finally stick to one racing series next year? I believe if she’s ever going to be a consistent top driver she’s got to make the move into just one series. Whether her detractors believe it or not, I think she’s shown marked improvement with the fender rubbers in NASCAR’s Nationwide Series and that her best option would be to move full-time to that series and then consider a ride at the Cup level. She has one heck of a following, she’s good for NASCAR and if she follows that course maybe we’ll see her in victory lane. It’s supposed to be about winning isn’t it?

I’m sure I’ve missed out on some of the rumors out there. What have you heard?