A Harbinger of Things to Come?

With 5 more intermediate sized track races left in 2011 and all of them being in the Chase, who among the Chase drivers has been doing the best on that size track?

Given his fantastic win yesterday on Atlanta Motor Speedway’s 1.5 mile track you’d think Jeff Gordon would be at the top of this season’s list, but think again…

Here are the top 12 intermediate track drivers through 7 races…

Note: Drivers in the Chase are in green while drivers in the hunt are in yellow.

-----------------------After 7 Intermediate Track Races in 2011
----------Chase---------------------------Ave.-----Total----Total--------------Average
Rank----Rank----Driver----------------Finish ---Points—Earnings---------Points
1---------3---------Carl Edwards--------5.29-----280------$1,526,562------40.00
2---------10-------Tony Stewart--------8.71-----254------$1,227,256------36.29
3---------12-------Denny Hamlin-------8.57-----252------$1,102,400------36.00
4---------5---------Matt Kenseth------10.29 ----245------$1,372,552------35.00
5---------7---------Kurt Busch----------10.29 ----242------$1,063,925------34.57
6---------11-------Brad Keselowski ---11.43 ----236------$1,065,506------33.71
7---------1---------Jimmie Johnson ---11.29 ----230------$1,155,977------32.86
8---------6---------Kevin Harvick------12.71-----224------$1,263,227------32.00
9---------9---------Dale Jr. -------------12.71-----221--------$857,500-------31.57
10-------15-------Greg Biffle----------13.71-----215--------$853,825--------30.71
11-------21-------Marcos Ambrose-13.71------215--------$974,337--------30.71
12-------8---------Ryan Newman----13.43------215-----$1,008,560---------30.71

Other 2011 Chasers not on this list? How about 2nd place Kyle Busch! Gordon comes in at number 14 with an average finish of 15.14 on this list while Kyle is clear down at 18th with an average finish of 19th…

Given this information I’ve gotta conclude that all the sudden talk about Gordon being a threat to dethrone “5 Time” is just so much hot air and the same goes for Kyle Busch possibly challenging the reigning champion.

Look at the top of that list… There’s the driver most likely to unseat JJ.

So how, you might ask, do these drivers do on the short tracks? Well, there are four short track races in the Chase and so far seven of the eight pre-Chase short track races have been run this season.

Here’s the current 2011 ranking:

---------------------------------After 7 Short Track Races
----------Chase-----------------------------Average---Total------Total--------Average
Rank----Rank-----Driver-----------------Finish------Points----Earnings ----Points
1----------1---------Jimmie Johnson-----6.14--------272------$1,069,555---38.86
2----------2---------Kyle Busch------------8.71--------259------$1,218,654----37.00
3----------5---------Matt Kenseth-------10------------244------$1,038,136----34.86
4----------6---------Kevin Harvick-------10.86--------237--------$999,326-----33.86
5---------3----------Carl Edwards--------11.71--------231-------$989,629------33.00
6---------8----------Ryan Newman------12.14--------231------$1,020,825-----33.00
7---------12--------Denny Hamlin-------12------------226------$1,019,408-----32.29
8---------9----------Dale Earnhardt Jr.--12.14--------225--------$712,086------32.14
9---------4----------Jeff Gordon----------12.86--------222------$1,053,777------31.71
10--------7---------Kurt Busch------------13.43--------215--------$866,775------30.71
11-------21--------Marcos Ambrose----15------------204--------$864,179------29.14
12-------17--------Kasey Kahne----------15.71--------201--------$791,065------28.71

Carl Edwards is running along at 5th on the short tracks and there’s the reigning champion back in the Cat Bird Seat… Note that Tony Stewart and Brad Keselowski aren’t in the top 12 on 2011 Shot Tracks. Tony comes in at number 20 on this list averaging 18.29 on his finishes while Brad is 22nd with an average finish of 19.57.

There is only 1 long track race on the 2011 Chase schedule even though there have been 9 pre-Chase races on race tracks that are two miles long or longer this season (?). Regardless of that gross oversight, here are the 2011 Long Track average rankings:

----------------------------------------After 9 Long Track Races
----------Chase------------------------------Average-----Total----Total-------------Average
Rank----Rank----Driver-------------------Finish--------Points---Earnings--------Points
1---------2---------Kyle Busch--------------7.78---------338----$1,876,957-------42.25
2---------4---------Jeff Gordon-------------9.67---------318----$1,768,087------39.75
3---------20-------Paul Menard-----------11.11--------304----$1,375,788------38.00
4---------1---------Jimmie Johnson -------11.78-------298----$1,874,162------37.25
5---------10-------Tony Stewart-----------12 -----------292----$1,476,735------36.50
6---------8---------Ryan Newman---------12.44--------292----$1,478,438------36.50
7---------5---------Matt Kenseth----------13------------284----$1,640,037------35.50
8---------6---------Kevin Harvick-----------13.44-------283----$1,738,012------35.38
9---------14-------Clint Bowyer------------13.89-------277----$1,573,885------34.63
10--------7--------Kurt Busch---------------13.89-------277----$1,785,626------34.63
11-------19-------Mark Martin-------------13.67-------276----$1,185,888------34.50
12-------9---------Dale Jr.-------------------13.89--------275---$1,239,338------34.38

So who of the chasers is not included in the top 12 Long Track ranking? None other than Carl Edwards, Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin, but these guys come out smelling like a rose since there’s only the one long track race in the Chase!

Here’s your 2011 NASCAR Champion if the 2011 track type averages hold true and Dale Earnhardt Jr., Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin make it into the Chase field:

-----------------------Start
Driver---------------Points--Short------Intermediate----Long------Total
Carl Edwards-------2003-----132-----------200----------27.78-----2362.78
Jimmie Johnson---2003-----155.44--------164.3-------37.25-----2359.99
Matt Kenseth------2006-----139.44--------175---------35.5------2355.94
Kevin Harvick------2009-----135.44--------160---------35.38-----2339.82
Kyle Busch----------2012-----148------------131.45-----42.25-----2333.70
Kurt Busch----------2003-----122.84--------172.85-----34.63-----2333.32
Denny Hamlin------2000-----129.16--------180---------23.78-----2332.94
Ryan Newman------2003-----132-----------153.55------36.5------2325.05
Jeff Gordon----------2009-----126.84-------149.3-------39.75-----2324.89
Tony Stewart--------2000-----103.44-------181.45------36.5------2321.39
Dale Earnhardt Jr.--2000-----128.56-------157.85------34.38-----2320.79
Brad Keselowski----2000-----100-----------168.55------26.67-----2295.22

Carl Edwards wins by less than 3 points! Gotta love those 1.5 mile tracks!

Here are how the 2011 top 10 finishing drivers and all the 2011 Chasers did on Alabama’s Superspeedway Talladega track earlier this season:

Talladega April 17, 2011

Finish---Driver----------Pts

1--------Jimmie Johnson--47

2--------Clint Bowyer------44

3--------Jeff Gordon-------42

4--------Dale Jr.-------------41

5--------Kevin Harvick----40

6--------Carl Edwards----39

7--------Greg Biffle-------38

8--------Mark Martin-----37

9--------David Gilliland---35

10-------Joey Logano-----35

17-------Tony Stewart----27

18-------Kurt Busch-------27

23-------Denny Hamlin---21

25-------Ryan Newman---20

33-------Brad Keselowski-12

35-------Kyle Busch--------10

36-------Matt Kenseth-----9

Remember Jr. pushing JJ across the line?

If the Talladega Chase race matches the April 17th Talladega Race results we’re going to have to change JJ’s nickname to “6 Time”!
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Why aren't there more long tracks in the Chase? Seems to me there's a perfect split among the various venues for the Chase... 3 Short, 3 Intermediate and 3 Long Tracks along with 1 measly road course... The next step is to put the Chase races on a rotating basis from year to year. If you truly want to see who the top drivers and teams are, throw them some curves from one year to the next. Prior to Atlanta's Cup race I saw an interview with Chad Knaus in which he stated the 48 team had all their cars prepped and ready for the Chase and let the audience know those cars were better than what we've seen JJ driving during the regular season. If the Chase tracks rotated from year to year these top money teams wouldn't have such an advantage...