With A Little Bit of Luck

Like a group of hunting hounds, there are eleven NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers and their teams preparing to chase after a wily fox who happens to be the reigning Sprint Cup champion. Almost six years ago Jimmie Johnson joined his teammate Jeff Gordon and competitors Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Kurt Busch and Bobby Labonte as an active driver in NASCAR who has won the Cup championship. The 2006 victory marked the beginning of one of the most impressive championship runs in all of sport as today Jimmie Johnson has amassed five consecutive titles standing only two championship victories away from tying NASCAR legends Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt.

Driving for one of the top funded teams in stock car racing, Jimmie was very fortunate to be paired with Crew Chief Chad Knaus. This combination of funding, one of the sport’s very best crew chiefs and a top wheel man, with a little bit of luck thrown in, has resulted in this astounding run.

So here we are in 2011 at the beginning of yet another Chase to the championship and the first question on everyone’s mind is: Can Jimmie Johnson extend the streak? The sport’s pundits are all analyzing what Jimmie and Chad have accomplished this season and how that compares to the past. Out of this comes a couple of fairly glaring differences. First and foremost, in all of his 5 previous championship seasons Jimmie has entered the Chase with at least 3 wins. This season he only has a single victory. That win came at Talladega thanks to teammate Dale Jr.’s push job (Take a bow Jr…). That’s definitely new. Right off the get go Jimmie’s an also-ran. Can he and the 48 team ramp it up? Don’t bet against them. This isn’t just a test of driving skill, equipment and teamwork, it’s a test of mental toughness and that’s something this team has proven to possess over and over again. The second potential difference maker is the new points earning format NASCAR has installed this season. It’s generally believed if a team gets down early in this year’s Chase it will be much more difficult than how it was under the old points system to catch back up. We’ve all witnessed Brad Keselowski’s very impressive August run (Two firsts, a second and a third place finish in four races) that catapulted the Blue Deuce into the 2011 Chase, but coming from 21st in the standings on July 31st with 511 points Brad could only move up to 11th place on the strength of the 178 points he generated in that timeframe and this was one of the best runs we’ve seen in quite some time. There should be a little more emphasis on the early Chase races this time around as a result.

There are other areas of concern if “5 Time” wants to change that moniker to “6 Time” in 2011. First off they’ve got to be thinking about the law of averages. Everybody knows at some point it’s going to catch up with ‘em. There’s got to be a little voice somewhere in the back of each member of the 48 team’s consciousness that’s quietly saying “Not this time…”.

Going clear back to late last season the 48’s pit crew has been having problems and it continues to be a concern at HMS. A couple of poor pit stops can be costly…

Another area of concern springs from the “have at it” side of the equation. JJ has had run-ins with competitors in the past, such things just can’t be avoided in this sport, but an on-going feud with past

champion Kurt Busch has bordered on ugly this season. Just this last weekend on the ¾ mile track at Richmond Kurt and JJ brought their differences back to a boil. Yes, they’d both already made the Chase at that point so it was a good time for them to stand their ground, and yes, conventional wisdom says these two top drivers will step away from confrontation as the Chase races commence since most of the things that can happen in these kinds of scraps are bad, but what if opportunity knocks?

Finally, Jimmie Johnson, Chad Knaus and the 48 team are damned good, but don’t forget, you don’t win 5 championships in a row without a little bit of luck. Does their luck run out this year?

I’m going to step out on that limb and bet there’s a different guy holding up the Sprint Cup Championship trophy come November. The next question then becomes: Who will it be?

For a little additional entertainment here’s some press conference fodder featuring JJ and then Kurt sparing from afar…

Johnson Vents About Kurt Busch… Mid August

Kurt’s Response