Racing By The Numbers

Who Will Win?

The Track Championship Standings

Well we’re 26 races in… There have been 9 long track races (2 mile or longer tracks), 8 short track races (1 mile or shorter tracks), 7 intermediate track races (between 1 and 2 mile long tracks) and 2 road course races.

August 8th we found that Juan Pablo Montoya earned NASCAR’s 2010 Road Course Championship followed closely by tez’s favorite, Marcos Ambrose.

So… We’ve still got 3 Track Championships to award…

Here’s a look at how each Championship shapes up plus where the 12 Chase participants are ranked in each one:

----------------------------------- After 9 Long Track Races ---------------------------------------
Over- --Chase
All -----Driver ----------------------Average-----Total------Total-----------Average
Rank---Rank------Driver------------Finish------Points----Earnings---------Points
1-----------1-----Kevin Harvick-------4.56------1,512---$2,344,550-------168.00
2-----------2-----Denny Hamlin-----10.89------1,302----$1,500,145-------145.67
3-----------3-----Carl Edwards -------8.44------1,282----$1,548,323-------142.44
4-----------4-----Greg Biffle---------10.56------1,271----$1,900,120-------141.22
5-----------5-----Tony Stewart------10.33-------1,253----$1,629,748------139.22
6-----------6-----Clint Bowyer------11.00-------1,217----$1,590,670------135.22
7-----------7-----Jeff Burton---------11.56-------1,208----$1,539,801------134.22
8-----------8-----Matt Kenseth------13.78-------1,119----$1,501,775------124.33
9-----------9-----Kurt Busch---------15.11-------1,118---$1,548,473-------124.22
10----------------Mark Martin-------15.56-------1,092----$1,275,195------121.33
11--------10-----Jimmie Johnson---17.00-------1,086----$1,720,037------121.67
12--------11-----Kyle Busch--------16.44-------1,066----$1,568,270------118.44
17--------12-----Jeff Gordon--------18.11-------1,028----$1,510,750------114.22

With only 2 of the Chase races on long tracks (Fontana and Talladega) it appears Kevin Harvick may have a lock on the Long Track Championship!

Pay attention to the average points on the far right of each race format table…

-------------------------------- After 7 Intermediate Track Races-------------------------------
Over- --Chase
All -----Driver---------------------Average-----Total-------Total--------Average
Rank---Rank-----Driver-----------Finish------Points-----Earnings------Points
1-----------1-----Kurt Busch--------10.86------1,013----$1,426,411----144.71
2-----------2-----Jeff Gordon-------11.14---------983----$1,219,932----140.43
3-----------3-----Kyle Busch-------10.71---------969----$1,239,442----138.43
4-----------4-----Matt Kenseth-----10.57---------950----$1,082,007----135.71
5------------------Kasey Kahne-----12.57---------915----$1,045,005----130.71
6-----------5-----Jeff Burton--------12.43---------911------$990,680----130.14
7-----------6-----Tony Stewart-----14.29---------897----$1,175,986----128.14
8-----------7-----Denny Hamlin----15.86---------886----$1,347,985----126.57
9------------------Ryan Newman---13.43---------876------$970,128----125.14
10---------8------Jimmie Johnson--16.57--------872-----$1,511,621----124.57
11---------9------Kevin Harvick----14.57--------869-----$1,131,287----124.14
14--------10-----Clint Bowyer------16.71--------830-------$778,525----118.57
15--------11-----Carl Edwards -----17.00--------820-----$1,108,111----117.14
25--------12-----Greg Biffle--------21.86---------697------$701,850------99.57

With four intermediate track races coming up during the Chase (Kansas, Charlotte, Texas and Homestead-Miami) and with less than 100 points separating five drivers, the Intermediate Track Championship is still up for grabs! Can that dude drivin’ the blue number 2 give the Brew Crew something to cheer about?


------------------------------------After 8 Short Track Races------------------------------------
Over- --Chase
All -----Driver ----------------------Average-----Total-------Total------Average
Rank---Rank-----Driver-------------Finish------Points----Earnings-----Points
1-----------1-----Kyle Busch---------6.88--------1,267--$1,651,896-----158.38
2-----------2-----Jeff Gordon---------7.38-------1,193---$1,244,231----149.13
3-----------3-----Jimmie Johnson----9.75-------1,185---$1,389,399----148.13
4-----------------Ryan Newman------8.13-------1,171---$1,123,855----146.38
5-----------4-----Carl Edwards -----10.13-------1,094---$1,044,432----136.75
6-----------5-----Matt Kenseth------10.75-------1,080---$1,144,181----135.00
7-----------6-----Jeff Burton---------12.75-------1,051---$1,095,393----131.38
8-----------------Joey Logano--------12.00------1,047---$1,046,068----130.88
9-----------7-----Kevin Harvick-----12.13-------1,047--$1,084,206----130.88
10---------8-----Denny Hamlin-----14.25-------1,041---$1,039,460----130.13
11---------9-----Clint Bowyer------12.75-------1,032------$829,900----129.00
13--------10-----Tony Stewart-----16.00----------973----$1,072,362----121.63
14--------11-----Kurt Busch--------16.00---------969----$1,080,857----121.13
15--------12-----Greg Biffle--------15.00---------967------$782,125----120.88

There are four short track races in the Chase (New Hampshire, Dover, Martinsville and Phoenix) and with less than 100 points separating the top four drivers this championship remains in question! Can Kyle hang on with the HMS top guns breathing down his neck? I have to think it would make him very happy to rub Hendrick’s nose in it!

So far this season 70 different drivers have run in the Cup Series. Other than the 12 Chase drivers, and with the exception of the two road course races, only four other drivers have cracked the Top Ten in any of these race venue categories… Mark Martin (10th) on the long track races, Kasey Kahne (5th) and Ryan Newman (9th) on the intermediate length track races and Newman (4th) and Joey Logano (8th) on the short track race venues. That speaks to the constant consistency these top drivers and their teams have to put together…

Who Will Win?

NASCAR’s Chase

One thing that doesn’t seem right about the current Chase format… There are five drivers that qualified for the Chase without a single win.

Considering we all want to see arguably the top automobile racing drivers up on their steering wheels, hard driving with each other for the win, I’d like to see one simple change enacted in future Chase qualifications… The top twelve drivers based upon the current point system who have also won a race should be qualified for the Chase…

If this easy to determine feature was included, here would be the 2010 NASCAR Chase field of drivers (In order of points earned plus Cup Series wins):

Rank-----Driver------------------Points—Wins---Chase Points
1--------Denny Hamlin----------3342------6-----------5060
2--------Jimmie Johnson--------3417------5-----------5050
3--------Kevin Harvick----------3723------3-----------5030
4--------Kyle Busch--------------3495------3-----------5030
5--------Kurt Busch---------------3337-----2-----------5020
6--------Jamie McMurray--------3050-----2-----------5020
7--------Tony Stewart------------3417------1-----------5010
8--------Greg Biffle---------------3177-----1-----------5010
9--------Ryan Newman-----------3079-----1-----------5010
10------Juan Pablo Montoya----3017-----1-----------5010
11------David Reutimann--------2986-----1-----------5010
12------Jeff Gordon---------------3493-----0-----------5000

Under these circumstances Jeff Gordon makes it into the Chase since there were only 11 drivers with wins in the 26 qualifying races and Gordon had the most accumulated points without a win.

Doesn’t that field of winners just feel better than the one we’ve got?

Here’s the sorry bunch that wouldn’t qualify since they couldn’t get out front and win any of the 26 qualifying races… Don’t we want winners here?

Unqualified Drivers In 2010 Chase if a win was necessary to make it in…
-------------------------Points---Wins
Carl Edwards--------3427-------0
Jeff Burton-----------3390-------0
Matt Kenseth--------3346-------0
Clint Bowyer--------3221-------0

Okay, who’s gonna win the 2010 Chase? Good Lord can you count all the variables involved? If we just look at the most likely driver to win based upon their 2010 season’s work to date, here are a couple of scenarios:

Using each of the 2010 Chase qualifiers’ average points by type of race venue (seen up above in the various championship standings) and plugging them into the short, intermediate and long track races coming up along with each driver’s Chase points, here’s how it shakes out:

-----------------------Chase----------Sht---X4----Int---X4---Long---X2
Rnk----Driver--------Points--Total—Ave----------Ave--------Ave---------
1-----Kyle Busch------5030--6450—158---632---138---552--118---236
2-----Kevin Harvick---5030--6386—131---524---124---496--168---336
3-----Jimmie Johnson-5050--6384--148---592---125---500--121---242
4-----Jeff Gordon------5000--6384--149--596---140---560---114---228
5-----Denny Hamlin---5060--6378---130--520---127---508---145---290
6-----Kurt Busch------5020--6332---121--484---145---580---124---248
7-----Matt Kenseth----5000--6332--135--540---136---544---124---248
8-----Jeff Burton------5000--6312---131--524---130---520---134---268
9-----Carl Edwards----5000--6300--137--548---117---468----142---284
10---Tony Stewart-----5010--6288--122--488---128---512----139---278
11---Clint Bowyer------5000--6262--129--516---119---476----135---270
12---Greg Biffle--------5010--6176---21---484---100---400---141---282

I know what you’re sayin’… Dwindy’s a Kyle Busch fan… Hey! That’s how it worked out!

Okay, okay… Let’s look at it this way… 8 of the final 10 race tracks have already hosted Cup Series races this year. Only Kansas and Homestead-Miami haven’t had a race yet. So… I’ll plug in each of the Chase drivers’ points earned in those 8 earlier races and use the intermediate track average on the other two races. Here’s how that angle works out:

------------------------------------Bns---Chase
Rnk----Driver----------Wins---Pts----Total----NH—Dvr—Kan—Fon—Chr--M'vl—Dega—Tex—Phx—Hsd--TOTAL
1-----Kyle Busch--------3------30-----5030----135---190---138---126---170-----97---143-----165---152---138----6484
2-----Jimmie Johnson—5-----50------5050---190---125---125---195----57----138----75-----175----175---125----6430
3-----Denny Hamlin----6------60------5060---121---160---127----81---114---195---165-----190-----73----127----6413
4-----Kurt Busch--------2------20------5020---170---111---145---155---195----99----147-----165-----58---145----6410
5-----Kevin Harvick----3------30------5030---155---146---124---175---130----63----190-----146----124—124----6407
6-----Jeff Gordon-------0-------0------5000---160---130---140---108---155---170----102------80----175—140----6360
7-----Matt Kenseth-----0-------0------5000---112---170---136---146---139---109----84------103----155—136----6290
8-----Clint Bowyer-----0-------0------5000---146---112---119---147---151---146---146-------55----138—119----6279
9-----Jeff Burton-------0-------0------5000----132---175---130---170----88---108-----77-----132------88—130----6230
10---Tony Stewart-----1------10------5010---175---138---128---138---123----85----120-------72------99—128----6216
11---Carl Edwards-----0-------0------5000-----88---142---117---124---115----142---130------64----146—117----6185
12---Greg Biffle--------1------10------5010---115---150---100---134----67----134---117-----139------97—100----6163

Who knows how it will actually turn out… Greg Biffle could get a burr under his saddle and go on a win streak. Clint Bowyer might set his hair on fire! Or... It could be your worst nightmare!

Let’s see how it goes.