If the Chase started today, here are your twelve Chasers for 2011 (by order of points and wild card standings):

Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman, Tony Stewart and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. are in on points while Brad Keselowski (ranked 18th with two wins) and Denny Hamlin (ranked 11th with one win) are in by virtue of the new “wild card” format.

Here’s the list of 2010’s twelve Cup “Chase for the Championship” drivers (alphabetically):

Greg Biffle, Clint Bowyer, Jeff Burton, Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth and Tony Stewart.

So after 21 races and with five more to go before the Chase drivers are actually determined, three new faces may be in the run for the Cup Championship this year. Of those three, fan favorite Dale Earnhardt, Jr. may face the toughest task as he attempts to hang onto 10th place in the points standings with a total of 641. His 9th place finish last Sunday at Pocono solidified his hold on 10th as he currently has a 23 point lead over Denny Hamlin and a 41 point advantage over Clint Bowyer (the next closest driver in points without a victory this season). Tony Stewart is only one point ahead of Dale Jr. at 642, and we’re all waiting for his famous summer time drive to begin. If things don’t work out, Tony may fall out of contention too. Of the remaining 5 racing venues this Sunday’s race on the Watkins Glen road course probably presents the greatest challenge to Jr. and the greatest opportunity to Tony. With Stewart usually doing a good job on road courses, Dale Jr.’s stated many times how much he dislikes the road course races. He simply must put those thoughts aside if he expects to do some meaningful racing this fall. On the other hand, Dale’s done fairly well at Michigan, Bristol, Atlanta and Richmond in the past, although if we take his 2010 performances on those tracks when he finished 26th at the Glen, 19th at Michigan, 13th at Bristol, 22nd at Atlanta and 34th at Richmond, it becomes obvious he’s going to have to step it up considerably if he hopes to make the Chase this season.

Denny Hamlin, currently 11th in the points standings with one win on the season, is our next bubble boy. The danger to him being knocked out of the Chase comes from the other two one win drivers currently residing in 11th through 20th in the points standings. If Paul Menard or David Ragan can come up with a second win on any of the last five race tracks (and Denny goes winless), they will almost certainly assure themselves of a spot in the Chase. Then there are the other drivers (most notably Greg Biffle with 597 points, Mark Martin with 567 points, Kasey Kahne with 566 points and A.J. Allmendinger with 562 points) who have an outside chance at making the Chase on points. Last season on these five remaining “regular season” courses here’s how the three “Bubble Boys” and each of the other drivers in the top twenty performed using the 2011 points rewards system:

Driver-----------W. Glen----Michigan----Bristol----Atlanta----Richmond---Total Pts---Wins
Stewart------------37------------31-------------18--------45-------------28-----------801--------1 (Atl)
Earnhardt, Jr.-----18------------25-------------31--------22-------------10-----------747--------0
Hamlin -------------7-----------43--------------10---------2-------------45-----------725--------1 (Rch)
Bowyer------------12-----------31--------------41--------37------------39-----------760---------0
Biffle--------------20-----------41--------------36---------8-------------14-----------716---------0
Menard-----------28------------9---------------23---------9-------------18-----------674---------0
Martin-------------26-----------16--------------22--------23------------24-----------678---------0
Kahne-------------27-----------30--------------39--------13------------15-----------690----------0
Allmendinger---40------------27--------------13--------26------------36-----------704----------0
Keselowski-----24------------10---------------25-------19-------------29-----------665----------0
Ragan------------19-----------34---------------14-------25-------------21-----------669-----------0
Logano-----------11----------34---------------26--------17------------40------------676----------0

Given these circumstances, with Dale faltering, Clint Bowyer will slide right in there and the current drivers in as wild cards (Hamlin and Keselowski) will remain the same.

I suppose there’s the outside chance that someone will pop-up and win two of these final five pre-Chase races, but what are the odds of that happening, especially in a year where two drivers share the win lead this season with 3. Remember last season? JJ had 5 wins and Hamlin had 6 before the start of the Chase. That’s not happening in 2011.


Can Tony and Jr. maintain their position? A big part of that story will be determined this Sunday.
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I want to throw something out there for your comments as well... First, check out this video taken at the end of the Iowa Nationwide race last Saturday night and pay particular attention to the discussion between Carl Edwards and Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s crew chief.

These two guys were racing hard against each other causing many to wonder about them being on the same team... Then yesterday in Charlotte Stenhouse was questioned about what happened...

Q: It appeared you were pretty mad in the car at Iowa

STENHOUSE: “I was mad. I wasn’t mad that he ran into us coming off of turn 4. It goes a little deeper than that. He gave me the finger going down the backstraightaway and that’s kind of what fired me up. We’ll handle it. It was hard racing. We’ll talk about it. He thinks I’m maybe a little too aggressive, but I think coming from sprint cars, that’s just my style, that’s just how I raced.’’

Q: What about your crew chief saying you think Edwards hates you

STENHOUSE: “That might be a little bit much. Carl has helped me out in my career. It’s good racing with him. I don’t think, as of late he’s had a Nationwide car in our company be up there competing with him. Right now we’ve got three Nationwide cars that are all really fast. I think it’s just a product of everybody running hard and running up front. It gets a little frustrating sometimes.’’

Q: You’re running for a championship and Edwards isn’t, does that make it tougher to swallow that gets into you and could cost you a title?

STENHOUSE: “I really wasn’t thinking about the championship at that point. My crew chief reminded me that we were racing for a championship. I didn’t have a problem with him getting into us. I think that’s part of racing. We’ve all done it growing up. You’ve got to do what you’ve got to do to win. At that moment I think we had the fastest race car and for him to get back by us and start leading some more laps, he did what he had to do. It worked out for him. I kind of leaned on him going back by, so it’s just something that happens in racing. It makes it good for the fans.’’

Q: Do you look at what Edwards did differently from what Brad Keselowski did to you at Indy because one is a teammate and one isn’t?

STENHOUSE: “In the Brad deal at Indianapolis, I was mad, but I really wasn’t mad that he ran us up the race track. Like I said, when you don’t have the fastest car, you have to do something to win and Brad did what he had to do to win. I was just more mad that we didn’t win. I wasn’t mad about how it happened. I think that’s part of racing. If I was in Brad’s situation, I would have done the same thing. But teammate? I know Jack would probably say that is a little much.’’

After the race Edwards said that he has to stand his ground even if it's against a teammate, saying "Sometimes, it's not all roses."

Now I start to wonder... If Edwards had bailed on RFR, either Trevor Bayne or Ricky Stenhouse Jr. were lined up to step right into the vacated RFR Cup car. Have things been said that we're not privy to? Trevor and Ricky both had to have their hopes up and then Carl put the whammy on them. Based on what I've seen, if I had to choose the young Roush-Fenway driver with the most upside between Bayne and Stenhouse, I think I'd run with Mississippi over Tennessee. If this seeming RFR in-house feud continues could Stenhouse be on the move? Here's what he's currently thinking according to ESPN.com's David Newton:

Stenhouse said he has no definitive plan other than he'd like to run a full Nationwide schedule for Roush and part-time Cup schedule.

Stenhouse mentioned that Richard Petty Motorsports, which gets chassis and engines from RFR, might be looking to expand.

"I don't want to jump in too early (in Cup) and get in over my head," he said.

So the thought about moving on is there...

Think he'd drive a Toyota?

Sources:
http://hamptonroads.com/2011/08/stenhouse-explains-feelings-edwards-onefinger-salute-edwards-gave-him-iowa

http://espn.go.com/racing/nascar/nationwide/story/_/id/6847861/roush-fenway-racing-ricky-stenhouse-jr-carl-edwards-clear-air