And the Beat Goes On…

What do Dale Earnhardt Jr., Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart and Clint Bowyer have in common? They’re all, to one degree or another, on the bubble!

The way I see it, with just Atlanta and Richmond left before the Cup Chase participants are determined, two of these four will be in and two won’t…

Up front Junior is in the best position to make it since he’s sitting in 9th place on points and 10 drivers are in the Chase that way.

Tony Stewart is in 10th place 18 points behind Dale Jr. and 21 points ahead of 11th place Brad Keselowski (who mathematically makes the Chase with his 3 wins and being in the top 20 by finishing higher than 13th at Atlanta… At least that’s the way I’ve got it figured!). 

One point further back from Keselowski and residing in 12th place in the Chase is Clint Bowyer. Clint can make the Chase by either moving past Brad and either Tony or Junior into the top 10 on points or he has to continue leading Denny Hamlin in the points and wins either of the upcoming non-Chase races coupled with no other wins by Hamlin, Paul Menard, David Ragan or (with what’s becoming a very long shot) Marcos Ambrose. Of all these four drivers, Bowyer’s is the most tenuous situation but Hamlin has got to be sweating bullets too.

Of all these drivers, Denny showed the best at Bristol finishing in 7th, but he can’t take much solace in that. As stated above, if Menard, Ragan or possibly Ambrose can pull off a second win at either Atlanta or Richmond, then I’ll paraphrase Howard Cosell… “Down Goes Denny! Down Goes Denny!”

So who among this group has shown the best at Atlanta and Richmond in the past? Here’s what it looks like by the numbers:

Atlanta-

Tony Stewart in 24 starts has averaged an 11.58 finish with 3 wins.
Dale Jr. in 23 starts has averaged a 12.48 finish with 1 win.
Clint Bowyer in 10 starts has averaged a 15.5 finish without any wins.
Denny Hamlin in 11 starts has averaged an 18.46 finish without any wins.

I don’t see any distinct advantage for Hamlin or Bowyer or any disadvantage for Earnhardt or Stewart from Atlanta, so let’s say there aren’t any changes after that race. So it all boils down to Richmond… (and NASCAR gets just what they hoped for with their new Chase format, an interest generating finale to set the Chase field!)

Richmond-

Now it gets interesting on one of NASCAR’s old-time, iconic short tracks…

Richmond is Denny Hamlin’s home track and since Denny’s been in Cup racing only one driver (Kyle Busch) has shown better there… Denny Hamlin in 11 starts has averaged a 7.45 finish with 2 wins.

Surprisingly, Clint Bowyer comes in right behind Hamlin at Richmond! Clint Bowyer in 11 starts has averaged a 9.45 finish with 1 win.

Then, here comes Tony Stewart right behind Bowyer! Tony Stewart in 25 starts has averaged an 11.04 finish with 3 wins.

Dale Jr. hasn’t done too shabby at Richmond either coming in 10th best overall. Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 24 starts has averaged a 14.33 finish with 3 wins.

Looks like a shootout to me!

Considering how closely bunched these guys are, and with the knowledge that little things mean a lot when a person is under building stress, what else is going on that might weigh in to this determination?
Well, let’s see…

I’m hearing that Tony Stewart has been distracted this summer while manning his team owner duties putting together the Danica Patrick deal, but that’s done now… If this has been true, will Tony now shove aside everything else to concentrate on his racing and live up to his past champion status?

It’s been well chronicled that Clint Bowyer hasn’t signed a new contract with Richard Childress Racing and that’s got to be a constant burden right now. From what I’m hearing, Childress wants Clint to take a pay cut so Bowyer has been entertaining other offers. This economic climate certainly isn’t the best to be job hunting in… Just last week several NASCAR reporters had articles about Clint’s on-going contract problems, then he basically tanks it at Bristol…

Denny Hamlin and his team (primarily Hamlin and Crew Chief Mike Ford) have been at odds since the end of the 2010 season. I think it’s amazing the 11 team is anywhere near being in the 2011 Chase given these circumstances, but here they are and now it appears they all looked up and realized just where they are! Maybe the pressure’s suddenly going down on this team!

Then there’s NASCAR’s ultimate pressure cooker we all know as Dale Earnhardt Jr. I think the years of scrutiny have left Junior more or less immune to it all. With Dale Jr. the saying “It is what it is…” really fits. It’s been very interesting to hear Junior talking more about what he really wants as this year’s Chase draws near. In my opinion, this guy needs motivation on a much higher plain than what pushes the other drivers in NASCAR. Maybe having another chance, and the first in quite a while, at a NASCAR championship will build a real fire under him. Wouldn’t that be something?

Concerning the one-win drivers with a shot at the Chase if they can just win another race, all three won their first ever Sprint Cup race this year… Now really, what are the odds any one of them can pull off another win this season? I’ve got to say the odds are slim and none, but 2011 has been a very unusual year, so who knows?

The orchestra that is NASCAR is building to a pre-Chase crescendo! Whose songs will be played?

How do you see it playing out?