Do Fords Really Consistently Win At Michigan?

Last week we were looking down a twisting road course trying to determine who might, based upon their historical accomplishments at Watkins Glen, improve their chances of making the 2012 Sprint Cup Chase. Of the four drivers with a single win at the time it appeared Kyle Busch should have held the edge going into the race. Although the outright win went to that interloper from Australia, Marcos Ambrose, here’s how the four drivers with a single win were expected to perform and how they actually did:

Kyle Busch, with 6 top 10 finishes in 7 races, 3 top 5’s and a win in 2008 on the Glen course was by far the best historical driver and he ended up placing 7^th, which in combination with his lead laps netted the JGR #18 39 points.

Ryan Newman, in his last 10 starts at Watkins Glen put up the second best numbers with a top 5 and 3 top 10’s. Ryan just missed a top 10 finish coming in 11^th and garnering 33 points.

Jeff Gordon had just 2 top 10 finishes in his last 10 starts on New York’s road course and although, like Kyle Busch, he had a genuine shot at a top 5 finish and possibly the win, Jeff was victimized by the oily track. After spinning out on the final lap he finished well down the line in 21^st and only picked up 23 points for the 24 team’s effort.

Joey Logano was kind of a dark horse in this since we only had 3 starts in Sprint Cup racing to examine. His best finish was just last year when he came in 5^th. Logano ended up having a bad day finishing 32^nd and only picking up 12 points.

The analysis was really quite accurate based on the historical numbers these drivers have produced. So what was the bottom line coming out of one of the best races we’ve seen in a long time? Instead of the picture clearing up a little concerning who might end up grabbing the 12^th and final position in the 2012 Chase, the picture has become even more muddled with yet another driver literally willing himself into the competition.  

Going into this week’s Cup race at Michigan International Speedway I’ll now take a look at 5 drivers and their historical numbers. Just remember if any of these 5 can rip off a win at MIS the odds go way way up that they’ll be in the Chase and we all know anything can happen if a driver gets hot late in the season…

In order of their points standings after 22 races-

Ryan Newman is 13^th with 644 points (49 points out of 10^th place). In his last 10 starts at Michigan Ryan has 1 top 5 and 2 top 10 finishes and his average finish has been 19.8.

Kyle Busch is now in 14^th place with 638 points. In his last 10 starts Kyle has 1 win (Aug. 2011) and 3 top 5’s. Kyle’s average finish has been 13.8.

Jeff Gordon is 15^th with 634 points. Jeff has 3 top 5 and 5 top 10 finishes in his last 10 starts at MIS. His average finish has been 15.1.

Marcos Ambrose comes in 17^th with 600 points on the strength of last Sunday’s win. In his 8 starts at Michigan Marcos has accumulated 1 top 10 finish and that was a 9^th place finish last June. His average finish has been 24.9.

Finally, Joey Logano is in 18^th in the points standings through 22 races this season with 587 total points. In 7 Michigan Cup race appearances Joey has 2 top 10 finishes and his finishes have averaged 18.0.

Based on these numbers Kyle Busch should once again come out on top at Michigan followed by Jeff Gordon and Ryan Newman. Will another interloper show up? Will Carl Edwards come out of his winless funk and assert his claim to the Chase? Fords are supposed to do well on this track. (The way it stands right now all Carl needs is one win while staying in 12^th )

With only Bristol, Atlanta and finally Richmond coming up after Michigan before the Chase field is set, who wants it?