NASCAR Rules Changes for 'Dega

It was announced earlier today that NASCAR will change two rules for the Talladega Chase race designed to break up the multi-lap two car tandem drafting that's come with both this track's and Daytona's smooth resurfacing jobs.

First, the restrictor plate openings will be slightly larger (1/64th of an inch). This will yield from 7-10 more horsepower. I'm not sure how this translates to miles per hour or fuel mileage but I'm sure the former will go up and the latter will go down. How much of an effect this has remains to be seen, but it became obvious that the cars and driver skills were capable of safely running at increased speed as two car tandem racing speeds were up to 10 MPH greater than were single car qualifying speeds. I'm thinking the two car tango was actually much more dangerous than normal single car racing just based on the fact that the driver in the push car couldn't see what was happening up front. I know they tried to have radio communication between the two drivers hooked up, and it helped, but we all know how fast bad things can happen and we witnessed some accidents that normally wouldn't have happened.

Second, and the change most likely to break up the drafting, the cooling system's pop-off valve will be set to release water vapor at a lower temperature than before. In other words, the car doing the pushing won't be able to maintain a long-term draft like before. We've seen the two car hook-ups last as much as ten laps (in cool weather) before the trailing car had to get fresh air through it's radiator. The new valve will go off at 8 pounds per square inch less pressure than the old one and according to David Reutimann's crew chief Rodney Childers that change will drop the tandem run's durations down to 1 lap at the most.

A crew chief's nightmare?

We all know the drivers aren't going to give up a procedure that gives them more speed and because of this the rule changes will result in more pusher / pushee switching which, in terms of safety, may not be such a good thing either.

So what kind of speeds might we see considering more horsepower combined with the shortened draft durations? 220 MPH?

With A Little Bit of Luck

Like a group of hunting hounds, there are eleven NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers and their teams preparing to chase after a wily fox who happens to be the reigning Sprint Cup champion. Almost six years ago Jimmie Johnson joined his teammate Jeff Gordon and competitors Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Kurt Busch and Bobby Labonte as an active driver in NASCAR who has won the Cup championship. The 2006 victory marked the beginning of one of the most impressive championship runs in all of sport as today Jimmie Johnson has amassed five consecutive titles standing only two championship victories away from tying NASCAR legends Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt.

Driving for one of the top funded teams in stock car racing, Jimmie was very fortunate to be paired with Crew Chief Chad Knaus. This combination of funding, one of the sport’s very best crew chiefs and a top wheel man, with a little bit of luck thrown in, has resulted in this astounding run.

So here we are in 2011 at the beginning of yet another Chase to the championship and the first question on everyone’s mind is: Can Jimmie Johnson extend the streak? The sport’s pundits are all analyzing what Jimmie and Chad have accomplished this season and how that compares to the past. Out of this comes a couple of fairly glaring differences. First and foremost, in all of his 5 previous championship seasons Jimmie has entered the Chase with at least 3 wins. This season he only has a single victory. That win came at Talladega thanks to teammate Dale Jr.’s push job (Take a bow Jr…). That’s definitely new. Right off the get go Jimmie’s an also-ran. Can he and the 48 team ramp it up? Don’t bet against them. This isn’t just a test of driving skill, equipment and teamwork, it’s a test of mental toughness and that’s something this team has proven to possess over and over again. The second potential difference maker is the new points earning format NASCAR has installed this season. It’s generally believed if a team gets down early in this year’s Chase it will be much more difficult than how it was under the old points system to catch back up. We’ve all witnessed Brad Keselowski’s very impressive August run (Two firsts, a second and a third place finish in four races) that catapulted the Blue Deuce into the 2011 Chase, but coming from 21st in the standings on July 31st with 511 points Brad could only move up to 11th place on the strength of the 178 points he generated in that timeframe and this was one of the best runs we’ve seen in quite some time. There should be a little more emphasis on the early Chase races this time around as a result.

There are other areas of concern if “5 Time” wants to change that moniker to “6 Time” in 2011. First off they’ve got to be thinking about the law of averages. Everybody knows at some point it’s going to catch up with ‘em. There’s got to be a little voice somewhere in the back of each member of the 48 team’s consciousness that’s quietly saying “Not this time…”.

Going clear back to late last season the 48’s pit crew has been having problems and it continues to be a concern at HMS. A couple of poor pit stops can be costly…

Another area of concern springs from the “have at it” side of the equation. JJ has had run-ins with competitors in the past, such things just can’t be avoided in this sport, but an on-going feud with past

champion Kurt Busch has bordered on ugly this season. Just this last weekend on the ¾ mile track at Richmond Kurt and JJ brought their differences back to a boil. Yes, they’d both already made the Chase at that point so it was a good time for them to stand their ground, and yes, conventional wisdom says these two top drivers will step away from confrontation as the Chase races commence since most of the things that can happen in these kinds of scraps are bad, but what if opportunity knocks?

Finally, Jimmie Johnson, Chad Knaus and the 48 team are damned good, but don’t forget, you don’t win 5 championships in a row without a little bit of luck. Does their luck run out this year?

I’m going to step out on that limb and bet there’s a different guy holding up the Sprint Cup Championship trophy come November. The next question then becomes: Who will it be?

For a little additional entertainment here’s some press conference fodder featuring JJ and then Kurt sparing from afar…

Johnson Vents About Kurt Busch… Mid August

Kurt’s Response

Quick Nascar News...

With the September 11, 2001 10th anniversary this Sunday several NASCAR teams plan tribute paint schemes to honor the victims of 9/11 on their cars at Richmond.

Stewart-Haas has released Tony Stewart's paint scheme...

Earnhardt-Ganassi's Jamie McMurray's car...

JGR's sponsor on the 18 car, Mars Candies, is mimicing an earlier paint scheme on Ken Schrader's number 36 car that was raced in September, 2001:

Here's JGR's sponsorless paint scheme seen today at Richmond... 

Several other teams and sponsors will also have tribute paint schemes. Look for the Roush-Fenway's Bayne, Edwards and Stenhouse Nationwide car paint schemes, all sponsored by Fastenall and the JRM GoDaddy number 7 Nationwide car driven by Danica Patrick.

After 10 long years our nation continues to be hounded by fears of terrorism...

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KHI to RCR

Interesting news just released: Kevin Harvick, Incorporated, is joining forces with Richard Childress Racing in the Nationwide Series and the Harvicks are getting out of truck racing completely.

KHI's equipment will be sold off, the racing team's 80,000 Sq. Ft. shop building in Kernersville, NC will be put on the market and 140 KHI employees were told Wednesday how many weeks they have left with the company.

In Kevin's words; “When RCR decided not to run the Nationwide cars, the cars were different. As the cars have migrated back to the same chassis, a lot of the same tires, a lot of the same components, it makes more sense from a performance standpoint to put them back at RCR to utilize the pieces. To make the things that need to be right (with the cars) in order to keep up with the Cup teams (fielding Nationwide cars) you have to be in a Cup shop. That’s just the unfortunate part about where we are with the process and things that come with the Nationwide cars. From a performance standpoint, I feel we will be better with the Cup people and technology in the (RCR) shop. … The Truck program, it’s just a tough model business wise and we’ve scrimped and scraped and got the sponsorship and things that you need and GM has been a great supporter of everything that we’ve done, but from a business standpoint sometimes you have to make the decisions on what you want to do and for us it just didn’t make sense.’’

Here's hoping KHI's 140 employees will be absorbed into RCR...

And this wonderful economy dishes out another hit.

A Harbinger of Things to Come?

With 5 more intermediate sized track races left in 2011 and all of them being in the Chase, who among the Chase drivers has been doing the best on that size track?

Given his fantastic win yesterday on Atlanta Motor Speedway’s 1.5 mile track you’d think Jeff Gordon would be at the top of this season’s list, but think again…

Here are the top 12 intermediate track drivers through 7 races…

Note: Drivers in the Chase are in green while drivers in the hunt are in yellow.

-----------------------After 7 Intermediate Track Races in 2011
----------Chase---------------------------Ave.-----Total----Total--------------Average
Rank----Rank----Driver----------------Finish ---Points—Earnings---------Points
1---------3---------Carl Edwards--------5.29-----280------$1,526,562------40.00
2---------10-------Tony Stewart--------8.71-----254------$1,227,256------36.29
3---------12-------Denny Hamlin-------8.57-----252------$1,102,400------36.00
4---------5---------Matt Kenseth------10.29 ----245------$1,372,552------35.00
5---------7---------Kurt Busch----------10.29 ----242------$1,063,925------34.57
6---------11-------Brad Keselowski ---11.43 ----236------$1,065,506------33.71
7---------1---------Jimmie Johnson ---11.29 ----230------$1,155,977------32.86
8---------6---------Kevin Harvick------12.71-----224------$1,263,227------32.00
9---------9---------Dale Jr. -------------12.71-----221--------$857,500-------31.57
10-------15-------Greg Biffle----------13.71-----215--------$853,825--------30.71
11-------21-------Marcos Ambrose-13.71------215--------$974,337--------30.71
12-------8---------Ryan Newman----13.43------215-----$1,008,560---------30.71

Other 2011 Chasers not on this list? How about 2nd place Kyle Busch! Gordon comes in at number 14 with an average finish of 15.14 on this list while Kyle is clear down at 18th with an average finish of 19th…

Given this information I’ve gotta conclude that all the sudden talk about Gordon being a threat to dethrone “5 Time” is just so much hot air and the same goes for Kyle Busch possibly challenging the reigning champion.

Look at the top of that list… There’s the driver most likely to unseat JJ.

So how, you might ask, do these drivers do on the short tracks? Well, there are four short track races in the Chase and so far seven of the eight pre-Chase short track races have been run this season.

Here’s the current 2011 ranking:

---------------------------------After 7 Short Track Races
----------Chase-----------------------------Average---Total------Total--------Average
Rank----Rank-----Driver-----------------Finish------Points----Earnings ----Points
1----------1---------Jimmie Johnson-----6.14--------272------$1,069,555---38.86
2----------2---------Kyle Busch------------8.71--------259------$1,218,654----37.00
3----------5---------Matt Kenseth-------10------------244------$1,038,136----34.86
4----------6---------Kevin Harvick-------10.86--------237--------$999,326-----33.86
5---------3----------Carl Edwards--------11.71--------231-------$989,629------33.00
6---------8----------Ryan Newman------12.14--------231------$1,020,825-----33.00
7---------12--------Denny Hamlin-------12------------226------$1,019,408-----32.29
8---------9----------Dale Earnhardt Jr.--12.14--------225--------$712,086------32.14
9---------4----------Jeff Gordon----------12.86--------222------$1,053,777------31.71
10--------7---------Kurt Busch------------13.43--------215--------$866,775------30.71
11-------21--------Marcos Ambrose----15------------204--------$864,179------29.14
12-------17--------Kasey Kahne----------15.71--------201--------$791,065------28.71

Carl Edwards is running along at 5th on the short tracks and there’s the reigning champion back in the Cat Bird Seat… Note that Tony Stewart and Brad Keselowski aren’t in the top 12 on 2011 Shot Tracks. Tony comes in at number 20 on this list averaging 18.29 on his finishes while Brad is 22nd with an average finish of 19.57.

There is only 1 long track race on the 2011 Chase schedule even though there have been 9 pre-Chase races on race tracks that are two miles long or longer this season (?). Regardless of that gross oversight, here are the 2011 Long Track average rankings:

----------------------------------------After 9 Long Track Races
----------Chase------------------------------Average-----Total----Total-------------Average
Rank----Rank----Driver-------------------Finish--------Points---Earnings--------Points
1---------2---------Kyle Busch--------------7.78---------338----$1,876,957-------42.25
2---------4---------Jeff Gordon-------------9.67---------318----$1,768,087------39.75
3---------20-------Paul Menard-----------11.11--------304----$1,375,788------38.00
4---------1---------Jimmie Johnson -------11.78-------298----$1,874,162------37.25
5---------10-------Tony Stewart-----------12 -----------292----$1,476,735------36.50
6---------8---------Ryan Newman---------12.44--------292----$1,478,438------36.50
7---------5---------Matt Kenseth----------13------------284----$1,640,037------35.50
8---------6---------Kevin Harvick-----------13.44-------283----$1,738,012------35.38
9---------14-------Clint Bowyer------------13.89-------277----$1,573,885------34.63
10--------7--------Kurt Busch---------------13.89-------277----$1,785,626------34.63
11-------19-------Mark Martin-------------13.67-------276----$1,185,888------34.50
12-------9---------Dale Jr.-------------------13.89--------275---$1,239,338------34.38

So who of the chasers is not included in the top 12 Long Track ranking? None other than Carl Edwards, Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin, but these guys come out smelling like a rose since there’s only the one long track race in the Chase!

Here’s your 2011 NASCAR Champion if the 2011 track type averages hold true and Dale Earnhardt Jr., Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin make it into the Chase field:

-----------------------Start
Driver---------------Points--Short------Intermediate----Long------Total
Carl Edwards-------2003-----132-----------200----------27.78-----2362.78
Jimmie Johnson---2003-----155.44--------164.3-------37.25-----2359.99
Matt Kenseth------2006-----139.44--------175---------35.5------2355.94
Kevin Harvick------2009-----135.44--------160---------35.38-----2339.82
Kyle Busch----------2012-----148------------131.45-----42.25-----2333.70
Kurt Busch----------2003-----122.84--------172.85-----34.63-----2333.32
Denny Hamlin------2000-----129.16--------180---------23.78-----2332.94
Ryan Newman------2003-----132-----------153.55------36.5------2325.05
Jeff Gordon----------2009-----126.84-------149.3-------39.75-----2324.89
Tony Stewart--------2000-----103.44-------181.45------36.5------2321.39
Dale Earnhardt Jr.--2000-----128.56-------157.85------34.38-----2320.79
Brad Keselowski----2000-----100-----------168.55------26.67-----2295.22

Carl Edwards wins by less than 3 points! Gotta love those 1.5 mile tracks!

Here are how the 2011 top 10 finishing drivers and all the 2011 Chasers did on Alabama’s Superspeedway Talladega track earlier this season:

Talladega April 17, 2011

Finish---Driver----------Pts

1--------Jimmie Johnson--47

2--------Clint Bowyer------44

3--------Jeff Gordon-------42

4--------Dale Jr.-------------41

5--------Kevin Harvick----40

6--------Carl Edwards----39

7--------Greg Biffle-------38

8--------Mark Martin-----37

9--------David Gilliland---35

10-------Joey Logano-----35

17-------Tony Stewart----27

18-------Kurt Busch-------27

23-------Denny Hamlin---21

25-------Ryan Newman---20

33-------Brad Keselowski-12

35-------Kyle Busch--------10

36-------Matt Kenseth-----9

Remember Jr. pushing JJ across the line?

If the Talladega Chase race matches the April 17th Talladega Race results we’re going to have to change JJ’s nickname to “6 Time”!
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Why aren't there more long tracks in the Chase? Seems to me there's a perfect split among the various venues for the Chase... 3 Short, 3 Intermediate and 3 Long Tracks along with 1 measly road course... The next step is to put the Chase races on a rotating basis from year to year. If you truly want to see who the top drivers and teams are, throw them some curves from one year to the next. Prior to Atlanta's Cup race I saw an interview with Chad Knaus in which he stated the 48 team had all their cars prepped and ready for the Chase and let the audience know those cars were better than what we've seen JJ driving during the regular season. If the Chase tracks rotated from year to year these top money teams wouldn't have such an advantage...

It's The Tires?

While taking a lap around the on-line auto racing news outlets today I came across an article on SB Nation that was very interesting. Basically it was a short Q & A between SB Nation's NASCAR commentator Jeff Gluck and Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin. What got my attention was Denny's contention that Goodyear has done too good a job in producing tires that meet all the specs NASCAR and the racing teams have asked for. This is a relatively new achievement and according to Denny the new higher quality tires are responsible for all the new drivers visiting Victory Lane this year. The tires have leveled the field by allowing less experienced drivers to push their cars through situations that would have (with lesser tires) been impossible to survive. Here's a quote from Hamlin: "In the last year, guys are driving corner entry way harder than what they should be allowed to," he said. "And I think that's some of the reason you see some of the new drivers winning this year. You just don't pay a price anymore for overdriving your race car because everything is just so good now."

Hamlin also spoke about drivers like Mark Martin, drivers who have made their living in NASCAR by knowing how to save a vehicle, losing their advantage since the tires are so much more resilient and forgiving of hard driving.

Hamlin said the long running tires have effected the number of green flag pit stops that are now necessary too. This plays in on a crew chief's pit strategy. Fuel mileage rather than tire wear has become the primary concern. These new tires, making longer runs possible, have brought fuel mileage and driving to save fuel to the forefront... Denny contends this has lowered the importance of driving skill and has made pit strategy a much more important component.

Hamlin's answer? "I would like to see in the future tires that we run fast for a lap or two, but then drop off tremendously. That would force teams to pit for tires and not attempt a fuel mileage gamble or other pit strategy quite as often."

I'll ask you longtime NASCAR fans: Have you ever seen so many races in NASCAR's three major series being won by drivers whose vehicles are about to run out of fuel?

I keep thinking of that CWTS race last week when several of the trucks, right at the end of the race, suddenly started slowing down, out of fuel...

Then there was this finish at the Coca Cola 600 this year.

(You Dale Jr. fans might not want to watch this...)

Here's the link to SB Nation's article: http://www.sbnation.com/nascar/2011/9/3/2402903/denny-hamlin-nascar-atlanta-motor-speedway-2011