A Hot Time In Hotlanta?

Who is going to burn Atlanta down?

Last week’s bombshell of a race at Bristol sure did bring out the best on the hostility front. Fan interest and viewership are up! Bruton must be smilin’ like the Cheshire Cat! (and so is race winner Denny Hamlin!)

So we march on to Atlanta once again with a group of drivers hoping to launch themselves into the glory of the Chase. There has been some shuffling among this group thanks to Bristol’s summer race on the revamped half mile concrete oval. Kyle Busch, on the strength of his 6^th place finish and 38 points, coupled with Ryan Newman’s unfortunate wreck that sent his team home early with a 36^th place finish and only 8 points, moved up to 13^th place and into the lead for the final Chase opening. Although Kyle wasn’t credited with leading a single lap at Bristol, a track he has tamed many times, I’m thinkin’ he’s pleased with these results but the fact remains any of this group of six drivers with a shot at 12^th place in the Chase can, just by virtue of a single win, either here in Atlanta or next week in Richmond, sew up the last seat at the dance.

Carl Edwards was oh so close to winning at Bristol after not stopping for fuel and tires on a caution with 85 laps to go. The strategy had him leading late in the race for 45 laps but alas (J) fresh tires and a splash was the way to go as Carl got passed then went dry. The 99 Ford team ended the night in 22^nd place garnering only 23 points. Carl remains in 12^th place without a win and a withering lead now only 5 points ahead of Kyle… Although I like them taking the risk late in the race and rolling the dice for another caution to pop up, the bottom line from this risky decision now equates to desperation time for the 99…

Jeff Gordon also elbowed his way past Newman to take over 14^th place, 15 points behind JGR’s 18. Jeff, powered by his great HMS 24 team, put together a strong effort coming in 3^rd at Bristol.

Now in 15^th place, all is not lost for the SHR 39 even though Ryan Newman gave up a lot of ground on the point’s side at Bristol. All you Ryan Newman fans have to do is just revisit Al Davis’ favorite saying…

Marcos Ambrose also moved up with his 5^th place Bristol finish adding 40 points to his total. Marcos is now in 16^th place and really picking up the pace as we head into turn four. Suddenly he’s trailing Kyle Busch for the 12^th place in the Chase by only 28 points! If he keeps the pressure on there’s no telling what might happen!

Joey Logano entered the Cup race at Bristol full of confidence after running off with the Nationwide win at Bristol race a day earlier and although he turned in a very good effort finishing in 8^th place, he’s so far down on the point’s side that a win is all that will cure his ills. Joey continues to languish in 18^th place not even within hailing distance of Paul Menard in 17^th place.

Bring on Atlanta!

Here is a quick rundown on these 6 drivers and their experiences down in Peach Country by order of most successful to least over their last 10 races:

Driver------------------Wins---------------Top 5’s---------------Top 10’s-------------Average Finish

Jeff Gordon-------------1---------------------3------------------------7-------------------------8.1

Carl Edwards-----------1---------------------5------------------------7------------------------14.5

Kyle Busch--------------1---------------------3------------------------3------------------------16.9

Ryan Newman---------0---------------------0------------------------2------------------------19.6

Marcos Ambrose------0---------------------0------------------------1------------------------22.0

Joey Logano------------0---------------------0------------------------0------------------------26.7

This is the first track I’ve examined in this series of races leading up to the 2012 Sprint Cup Chase where Kyle Busch hasn’t had the best record going in. Is it any coincidence that Atlanta is yet another of Bruton Smith’s 1.5 mile cookie cutter tracks? And along those same lines, is it any wonder why Jeff Gordon does well here?

Will this be the race where one of this group of almost also-rans knocks it out of the park? Or will we have to march on to Richmond to finally set the Chase field…

My best case scenario? Have one of these drivers notch their second win at Atlanta, move on to Richmond, full of optimism as the heir apparent to the Chase and then have another driver with a higher point total knock them off the perch at the last possible moment! Now that would really get the juices flowing! It would certainly give us something to consider since I’m afraid the 10 race 2012 Chase will only seem anti-climactic after what happened last year.

Bristol Baby!

And then there were 3 races to go before the Chase field is set...

What’s interesting is that we still don’t have a single chaser assured of a place in the field with only 3 races to go. The top of the points standings keeps getting jostled about. Last week’s points leader (Jimmie Johnson) fell clear to 4^th after losing his engine on a fast Michigan track just when it looked like the force (and the win) was with him… Greg Biffle was there to regain the points lead he had earlier in the season as he held off Brad Keselowski for the win. By the way, Bad Brad continues to look like the real deal as the Chase approaches. Too bad he and JJ appear to be friends. A Brad / JJ rivalry might really be something and somebody’s got to challenge the 48 team that otherwise looks poised to run away with it's 6^th championship…

While the top of the points standings seems to keep getting rearranged each week the drivers who are still in the race for the 12^th and final seat at the Chase table seem to be stuck with no one stepping up to claim the prize.

Last week’s analysis of drivers with the best chance to make the Chase pointed out that for the second week in a row Kyle Busch should have had the best finish based on historical statistics. Although Kyle had his struggles finishing in 13^th place he actually was slightly better than his 13.8 place average finish at Michigan. He picked up 31 points and maintained 14^th place overall in the points standings.

Just like Kyle, Ryan Newman entered and left Michigan without changing his position in the Chase remaining in 13^th place overall with a Top 10 finish coming in 8^th. Ryan did stretch his lead over Kyle by 15 points to 680 vs. 669 for Busch. As it stands right now Newman is in with one win and his point total...

Jeff Gordon had a tough outing in Michigan finishing 28^th with in-race and engine problems ending up with a sore finger from pointing it at everyone else as if it wasn’t his problem… Jeff, man up! The 24 team slipped a place in the standings as Paul Mennard moved up into 15^{th .} Jeff only picked up 16 points Sunday.

Marcos Ambrose, of the five one-win drivers with a shot to make the Chase, had the best finish at Michigan coming in 5^th and picking up 39 points. Problem is Marcos remained in 17^th place overall in the standings.

Finally Joey Logano remains in 18^th place overall after having a dismal day at Michigan where he came in 31^st only completing 132 laps of a possible 201 thanks to Juan Montoya. First, around mid-race, Joey and Juan were running side by side when Juan got loose and used the 20 car for his salvation. This move caused Joey to run up and smash into the wall. After another 50 racing laps passed the 20 was out of the garage and back on the track when Juan Pablo found the orange 20 once again forcing it into the wall a second time and again into the garage for heavy repair work. Joey was back out when the checkers flew only to scrape up 13 points. What did Joey do to you, Montoya???

If you think about it, all this talk about points is really fruitless. One of these guys needs to grab another win or Carl Edwards needs to do something he hasn't done since last season and defy Beagle voodoo by swiping a win and getting into the Chase by virtue of one win and more points than these other five drivers.

Who shines at Bristol? I think we all know the answer to that…

In his last 10 Cup starts in Thunder Valley Kyle Busch has 4 wins, 5 Top 5’s, 7 Top 10’s and an average finish of 8.7 but the way he’s been doing this season I’m going to say all bets are off at Bristol. The odds say he ought to win but will he?

Ryan Newman has the second best historical numbers at Bristol in his last 10 starts. Ryan has had 7 top 10 finishes and an average of 11.1 since 2007. In 21 Cup starts at Bristol in Ryan’s career his best finish was a 2^nd place way back in 2004. Ryan, you need to get ‘r done!

For the sake of comparison, Carl Edwards’ record at Bristol is very good. Cousin Carl in his last 10 starts has 2 wins, 3 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s and an average finish of 11.7. If Carl’s gonna do it, this just might be the place…

I wonder what Junior's thinking... No maybe not...

 

Poor Jeff Gordon…  He’d be all right if there weren’t any other cars on the track. Okay, enough of that. How’s Jeff done in his last 10 starts at Bristol? How about 3 Top 5’s and an average finish of 13.9? Not too shabby... In his career Jeff has 4 wins on the half mile concrete track but the last one was back in 2002. Did anyone else see Rusty Wallace’s take on Gordon this week? I don’t usually go along with much Rusty has to say but this time he nailed it. He talked about how involved most drivers are with their crews, a whole team working to win. Rusty claims Jeff isn’t that way anymore, kinda like he’s on cruise control while everyone else is thrashing for the win. If true, that says a lot…

Marcos needs to pay close attention to those immortal words spoken by the NFL’s Al Davis… “JUST WIN BABY!” Marcos, you listenin’?  Can you do that? I know it’s a tall order, man, especially at Bristol, but wouldn’t that be cool? In seven Cup starts at Bristol Marcos has a 3^rd place finish in 2009 and a 10^th place finish in last season’s August race. Couple that with an average finish of 18.14 and the indications are that there’s a chance and I guess that’s all you can ask for right now…

Joey Logano has not performed well in Thunder Valley at all. His best finish in seven Cup starts has been a 13^th place in last season’s August race. Joey has an average finish of 24.4… What can I say? Once again, here is a driver who just needs to win and it will make everything else immaterial. Is it in you Joey?

Is there really special power in Beagle voodoo? Will Carl break the spell?

What about Kyle? Can he climb out of his funk?

 Will Ryan make our own famous Cord Rotz proud?

Can Jeff pull off another weather win?

What about Marcos? It looks like he’s finally getting comfortable on America’s ovals. Can he really pump up our Aussie fans?

Logano makes a good dark horse. Will he surprise us all?

Here comes Thunder Valley! Who wants it???

Do Fords Really Consistently Win At Michigan?

Last week we were looking down a twisting road course trying to determine who might, based upon their historical accomplishments at Watkins Glen, improve their chances of making the 2012 Sprint Cup Chase. Of the four drivers with a single win at the time it appeared Kyle Busch should have held the edge going into the race. Although the outright win went to that interloper from Australia, Marcos Ambrose, here’s how the four drivers with a single win were expected to perform and how they actually did:

Kyle Busch, with 6 top 10 finishes in 7 races, 3 top 5’s and a win in 2008 on the Glen course was by far the best historical driver and he ended up placing 7^th, which in combination with his lead laps netted the JGR #18 39 points.

Ryan Newman, in his last 10 starts at Watkins Glen put up the second best numbers with a top 5 and 3 top 10’s. Ryan just missed a top 10 finish coming in 11^th and garnering 33 points.

Jeff Gordon had just 2 top 10 finishes in his last 10 starts on New York’s road course and although, like Kyle Busch, he had a genuine shot at a top 5 finish and possibly the win, Jeff was victimized by the oily track. After spinning out on the final lap he finished well down the line in 21^st and only picked up 23 points for the 24 team’s effort.

Joey Logano was kind of a dark horse in this since we only had 3 starts in Sprint Cup racing to examine. His best finish was just last year when he came in 5^th. Logano ended up having a bad day finishing 32^nd and only picking up 12 points.

The analysis was really quite accurate based on the historical numbers these drivers have produced. So what was the bottom line coming out of one of the best races we’ve seen in a long time? Instead of the picture clearing up a little concerning who might end up grabbing the 12^th and final position in the 2012 Chase, the picture has become even more muddled with yet another driver literally willing himself into the competition.  

Going into this week’s Cup race at Michigan International Speedway I’ll now take a look at 5 drivers and their historical numbers. Just remember if any of these 5 can rip off a win at MIS the odds go way way up that they’ll be in the Chase and we all know anything can happen if a driver gets hot late in the season…

In order of their points standings after 22 races-

Ryan Newman is 13^th with 644 points (49 points out of 10^th place). In his last 10 starts at Michigan Ryan has 1 top 5 and 2 top 10 finishes and his average finish has been 19.8.

Kyle Busch is now in 14^th place with 638 points. In his last 10 starts Kyle has 1 win (Aug. 2011) and 3 top 5’s. Kyle’s average finish has been 13.8.

Jeff Gordon is 15^th with 634 points. Jeff has 3 top 5 and 5 top 10 finishes in his last 10 starts at MIS. His average finish has been 15.1.

Marcos Ambrose comes in 17^th with 600 points on the strength of last Sunday’s win. In his 8 starts at Michigan Marcos has accumulated 1 top 10 finish and that was a 9^th place finish last June. His average finish has been 24.9.

Finally, Joey Logano is in 18^th in the points standings through 22 races this season with 587 total points. In 7 Michigan Cup race appearances Joey has 2 top 10 finishes and his finishes have averaged 18.0.

Based on these numbers Kyle Busch should once again come out on top at Michigan followed by Jeff Gordon and Ryan Newman. Will another interloper show up? Will Carl Edwards come out of his winless funk and assert his claim to the Chase? Fords are supposed to do well on this track. (The way it stands right now all Carl needs is one win while staying in 12^th )

With only Bristol, Atlanta and finally Richmond coming up after Michigan before the Chase field is set, who wants it?