Tuesday, July 19, 2011

It's Time to Look At the Numbers...

We’re just over the hump, mid-way through the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Season, and it’s time to take a look at how our favorite drivers / teams have fared through 19 races.


Following are the top 12 drivers in the four various types of courses raced on so far this season:

-------------------------------------------Short Tracks--------------------------------------------
Rank---------Chase-------Driver--------Team------------Average---------Points------Purse---
----------------Rank-------------------------------------------Finish-----------Total------Money—
1.----------------2-------Jimmie Johnson—HMS---------------6.50------------231------$883,394
2.----------------5-------Kyle Busch--------JGR----------------7.83------------228-----1,074,988
3.----------------4-------Kevin Harvick----RCR----------------9.00------------215-------858,540
4.----------------6-------Matt Kenseth------RFR---------------10.67-----------205-------879,275
5.----------------9-------Dale Earnhardt Jr.-HMS-------------11.50------------197-------605,936
6.----------------1-------Carl Edwards------RFR--------------12.17------------196-------840,788
7.----------------8-------Ryan Newman----SHR---------------12.83------------194------863,225
8.---------------20-------Mark Martin-----HMS---------------12.17------------193------688,466
9.---------------10-------Denny Hamlin---JGR----------------12.83------------189------865,158
10.--------------3--------Kurt Busch-------Penske-------------12.83------------188------727,750
11.--------------8--------Jeff Gordon------HMS---------------14.50------------179------850,791
12.-------------21-------Marcos Ambrose-RPM---------------15.83-----------170------729,238

----------------------------------------Intermediate Tracks-------------------------------------------
Rank---------Chase-------Driver--------Team------------Average---------Points------Purse---
----------------Rank-------------------------------------------Finish-----------Total------Money—
1.----------------1-------Carl Edwards--—RFR-----------------5.33------------240----$1,355,121
2.---------------10-------Denny Hamlin---JGR-----------------8.67------------215-------950,850
3.---------------11-------Tony Stewart----SHR-----------------9.67------------213------1,011,048
4.----------------6-------Matt Kenseth------RFR---------------10.50-----------209------1,218,666
5.----------------3------- Kurt Busch--------Penske------------11.33------------202-------888,400
6.---------------23-------Brad Keselowski-Penske-------------12.33------------197-------923,573
7.----------------9-------Dale Earnhardt Jr.-HMS--------------11.67------------196------755,150
8.---------------13-------David Ragan-----RFR-----------------12.17------------194------783,050
9.---------------21-------Marcos Ambrose-RPM----------------12.50-----------192------851,596
10.--------------9--------Ryan Newman----SHR----------------12.33-----------191------875,460
11.--------------2--------Jimmie Johnson--HMS----------------12.83-----------187------902,216
12.-------------4---------Kevin Harvick-----RCR---------------13.67-----------187----1,103,866

--------------------------------------------Long Tracks-------------------------------------------
Rank---------Chase-------Driver--------Team------------Average---------Points------Purse---
----------------Rank-------------------------------------------Finish-----------Total------Money—
1.----------------5-------Kyle Busch—---JGR-----------------9.50------------214----$1,237,684
2.---------------19-------Paul Menard----RCR---------------10.50------------205-------829,638
3.----------------3--------Kurt Busch-----Penske-------------11.17-----------202------1,316,676
4.----------------8--------Jeff Gordon-----HMS--------------12.17-----------198------1,147,104
5.----------------3-------Kevin Harvick----RCR-------------12.33-----------198------1,277,379
6.---------------2--------Jimmie Johnson--HMS ------------13.50------------189-----1,333,904
7.---------------11-------Tony Stewart-----SHR--------------13.67------------185-------985,436
8.---------------12-------Clint Bowyer-----RCR--------------14.33------------183------1,129,361
9.---------------16-------A.J. Allmendinger-RPM------------14.00-----------181---------971,229
10.--------------9-------Dale Earnhardt Jr.-HMS -------------14.33----------181---------875,460
11.--------------6-------Matt Kenseth------RFR ---------------14.33----------181------1,135,254
12.------------- 9--------Ryan Newman----SHR ---------------15.00---------181---------994,013

Only one road course race has been held so far, that being Sonoma last month…

---------------------------------------Sonoma Road Course-----------------------------------------
Rank---------Chase-------Driver--------Team------------Average---------Points------Purse---
----------------Rank-------------------------------------------Finish-----------Total------Money—
1.----------------3--------Kurt Busch--------Penske-------------1.00-------------48-------$293,300
2.----------------8--------Jeff Gordon------HMS----------------2.00-------------42--------234,486
3.----------------1-------Carl Edwards------RFR----------------3.00-------------41--------204,791
4.---------------12-------Clint Bowyer-----RCR----------------4.00-------------41--------179,508
5.---------------21-------Marcos Ambrose-RPM---------------5.00-------------39--------141,066
6.---------------18-------Joey Logano------JGR----------------6.00-------------39--------131,250
7.----------------2-------Jimmie Johnson—HMS--------------7.00-------------37--------148,561
8.--------------22-------Martin Truex Jr.---MWR--------------8.00------------36--------104,325
9.----------------4-------Kevin Harvick----RCR----------------9.00------------36--------139,111
10.-------------23-------Brad Keselowski--Penske-----------10.00------------34--------117,758
11.--------------5-------Kyle Busch--------JGR----------------11.00-----------33--------134,491
12.-------------30------David Gilliland----FRR----------------12.00-----------33--------105,333

Okay… Let’s extrapolate! By taking each driver’s first half point averages by type of track to be driven the rest of the season, here is an educated guess at who should come out on top at the end of the season…

First off, here are the twelve chasers:
Rank-------Driver----------------No.-------Team------Points------Wins
1------------Kyle Busch---------18----------JGR---------928--------5
2------------Carl Edwards------99----------RFR---------902--------1
3------------Kurt Busch---------22----------Penske------892--------1
4------------Kevin Harvick-----29----------RCR--------865--------3
5------------Matt Kenseth-------17----------RFR--------865--------2
6------------Jimmie Johnson---48-----------HMS-------863--------1
7------------Ryan Newman-----39----------SHR--------803--------1
8------------Jeff Gordon--------24----------HMS--------780--------3
9------------Tony Stewart------14----------SHR---------776--------1
10----------Dale Earnhardt Jr.-88----------HMS--------753--------0
11----------Denny Hamlin------11----------JGR--------736--------2
12----------David Ragan---------6----------RFR--------711--------1

So, by using the 2011 results on the tracks that were raced on earlier in the season and using the 2010 results on the two tracks in the Chase (Chicago and Homestead) that didn’t have an earlier race, here’s how the Chase boiled down (each race's points earned appear behind driver's name):

Chicago
Rank Driver 1.5 mi. Tri-Oval
1 Kyle Busch 27
2 Carl Edwards 43
3 Kurt Busch 18
4 Kevin Harvick 10
5 Matt Kenseth 31
6 Jimmie Johnson 21
7 Ryan Newman 22
8 Jeff Gordon 42
9 Tony Stewart 35
10 Dale Jr. 21
11 Denny Hamlin 36
12 David Ragan 32

-----------------Chicago --------New Hampshire
Rank Driver 1.5 mi. Tri-Oval 1.058 Mi. Oval Total
1 Carl Edwards 43 32 75
2 Jeff Gordon 42 34 76
3 Denny Hamlin 36 41 77
4 Tony Stewart 35 43 78
5 David Ragan 32 30 62
6 Matt Kenseth 31 24 55
7 Kyle Busch 27 8 35
8 Ryan Newman 22 48 70
9 Jimmie Johnson 21 40 61
10 Dale Jr. 21 29 50
11 Kurt Busch 18 35 53
12 Kevin Harvick 10 23 33

Dover
Rank Driver 2 Race Total 1 Mi. Concrete Oval Total
1 Tony Stewart 78 15 93
2 Denny Hamlin 77 28 105
3 Jeff Gordon 76 27 103
4 Carl Edwards 75 38 113
5 Ryan Newman 70 23 93
6 David Ragan 62 16 78
7 Jimmie Johnson 61 37 98
8 Matt Kenseth 55 47 102
9 Kurt Busch 53 30 83
10 Dale Jr. 50 33 83
11 Kyle Busch 35 40 75
12 Kevin Harvick 33 34 67
Kansas
Rank Driver 3 Race Total 1.55 Mi. Tri-Oval Total
1 Carl Edwards 113 40 153
2 Denny Hamlin 105 42 147
3 Jeff Gordon 103 40 143
4 Matt Kenseth 102 38 140
5 Jimmie Johnson 98 37 135
6 Tony Stewart 93 37 130
7 Ryan Newman 93 29 122
8 Kurt Busch 83 37 120
9 Dale Jr. 83 42 125
10 David Ragan 78 31 109
11 Kyle Busch 75 33 108
12 Kevin Harvick 67 33 100

Charlotte
Rank Driver 4 Race Total 1.5 Mi. Quad-Oval Total
1 Carl Edwards 153 29 182
2 Denny Hamlin 147 35 182
3 Jeff Gordon 143 25 168
4 Matt Kenseth 140 32 172
5 Jimmie Johnson 135 16 151
6 Tony Stewart 130 28 158
7 Dale Jr. 125 38 163
8 Ryan Newman 122 13 135
9 Kurt Busch 120 41 161
10 David Ragan 109 43 152
11 Kyle Busch 108 13 121
12 Kevin Harvick 100 47 147

Talladega
Rank Driver 5 Race Total 2.66 Mi. Triangle Total
1 Carl Edwards 182 39 221
2 Denny Hamlin 182 21 203
3 Matt Kenseth 172 9 181
4 Jeff Gordon 168 42 210
5 Dale Jr. 163 41 204
6 Kurt Busch 161 27 188
7 Tony Stewart 158 27 185
8 David Ragan 152 6 158
9 Jimmie Johnson 151 47 198
10 Kevin Harvick 147 40 187
11 Ryan Newman 135 20 155
12 Kyle Busch 121 10 131

Martinsville
Rank Driver 6 Race Total .526 Mi. Oval Total
1 Carl Edwards 221 27 248
2 Jeff Gordon 210 40 250
3 Dale Jr. 204 43 247
4 Denny Hamlin 203 33 236
5 Jimmie Johnson 198 34 232
6 Kurt Busch 188 28 216
7 Kevin Harvick 187 47 234
8 Tony Stewart 185 10 195
9 Matt Kenseth 181 38 219
10 David Ragan 158 36 194
11 Ryan Newman 155 25 180
12 Kyle Busch 131 43 174

Texas
Rank Driver 7 Race Total 1.5 Mi. Quad-Oval Total
1 Jeff Gordon 250 21 271
2 Carl Edwards 248 42 290
3 Dale Jr. 247 36 283
4 Denny Hamlin 236 29 265
5 Kevin Harvick 234 24 258
6 Jimmie Johnson 232 36 268
7 Matt Kenseth 219 48 267
8 Kurt Busch 216 35 251
9 Tony Stewart 195 33 228
10 David Ragan 194 38 232
11 Ryan Newman 180 30 210
12 Kyle Busch 174 28 202

Phoenix
Rank Driver 8 Race Total 1 Mi. Oval Total
1 Carl Edwards 290 17 307
2 Dale Jr. 283 34 317
3 Jeff Gordon 271 48 319
4 Jimmie Johnson 268 42 310
5 Matt Kenseth 267 33 300
6 Denny Hamlin 265 34 299
7 Kevin Harvick 258 41 299
8 Kurt Busch 251 37 288
9 David Ragan 232 8 240
10 Tony Stewart 228 38 266
11 Ryan Newman 210 40 250
12 Kyle Busch 202 43 245

Homestead
Rank Driver 9 Race Total 1.5 Mi. Oval Total
1 Jeff Gordon 319 7 326
2 Dale Jr. 317 17 334
3 Jimmie Johnson 310 43 353
4 Carl Edwards 307 48 355
5 Matt Kenseth 300 36 336
6 Denny Hamlin 299 30 329
7 Kevin Harvick 299 41 340
8 Kurt Busch 288 26 314
9 Tony Stewart 266 37 303
10 Ryan Newman 250 37 287
11 Kyle Busch 245 12 257
12 David Ragan 240 24 264


2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion!
Rank Driver No. Team 10 Race Total
1 Carl Edwards 99 RFR 355
2 Jimmie Johnson 48 HMS 353
3 Kevin Harvick 29 RCR 340
4 Matt Kenseth 17 RFR 336
5 Dale Jr. 88 HMS 334
6 Denny Hamlin 11 JGR 329
7 Jeff Gordon 24 HMS 326
8 Kurt Busch 22 Penske 314
9 Tony Stewart 14 SHR 303
10 Ryan Newman 39 SHR 287
11 David Ragan 6 RFR 264
12 Kyle Busch 18 JGR 257

If the 2011 Chase is anywhere near to this rendition we'll all really see an exciting close to the 2011 Sprint Cup season. Look at how Edwards pulled out the championship from JJ's grasp!
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11 comments:

  1. klvalusJuly 20, 2011 at 7:14 AM

    Dwindy are you trying to predict the future? Always hurtin my head with all these numbers...

    So the only thing you didn't account for was when I go to the track and as Kurt's official lucky charm remember he wins PHX for sure! =)

    Lets hope the Chase is as close as you call...

    ReplyDelete
  2. Gene HaddockJuly 20, 2011 at 5:07 PM

    Wow! You sure pack a lot of info in one post! It will be interesting to see if your final points stsndings hold up. I hope Kyle doesn't finish where you have him slotted.

    Of course, if you go back to average finish in the last 10 races for the last five years, JJ would be the champ this year. LOL

    ReplyDelete
  3. Dwindy1July 20, 2011 at 7:27 PM

    Kristen,

    I'm thinkin' Penske needs to bite the bullet and pay your way to every race! Just how committed is he to winning the Cup? It would definitely send a signal to the pit crew! Or maybe they'd start thinking Penske was having them psycho-analyzed! LOL!!!

    Thanks Kristen!

    ReplyDelete
  4. CR_RacingJuly 20, 2011 at 7:39 PM

    Dwindy, I suspect you crunch budget numbers for the House of Representatives on the side. lol

    Interesting that one of the usual suspects at short tracks, didn't make the top 10. That being Tony Stewart. Also, Sonoma should not play much of a factor for prognosticating the Glen. Newman for example, was strong all day, even after the early mess in turn 11. Menard dive bombed twice in the last 20 laps, spinning Ryan out the 2nd time. Otherwise, Newman could've had a top 10 finish. Stewart also was unfortunate to wind up on top of the tire barrier, courtesy of Brian Vickers.

    Anyway, I did enjoy your accountant post, as usual!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Dwindy1July 20, 2011 at 7:43 PM

    Gene, I was hoping to show the Chase in terms of the ebb and flow of it... If you look at the next to last race (Phoenix) Edwards went down big time from first to fourth and then came back with the win at Homestead to overtake all comers! Now that would be a great finish!

    Kyle, using the average finishes by type of venue, finishes the regular season in first but immediately has a mid-pack finish at Chicago and then a terrible finish at New Hampshire and that was the name of the tune... Harvick fell flat too but had several excellent finishes to finish in 3rd... with only one big track, 5 intermediates and 4 short tracks I've got a problem with the Chase races. Get rid of New Hampshire and shove in Watkins Glen or Sonoma for one twist (an early Chase road race would sure put the fear in these drivers!) then figure out how to shift things around to get Daytona in the Chase... Maybe swap the Homestead race and the summer Daytona run... Then the Cup season would both start and end in Daytona...

    Thanks Gene!

    ReplyDelete
  6. Dwindy1July 20, 2011 at 7:52 PM

    CR...

    Now I'm trying to present this in an impartial manner... My gosh, look who finised in last place!

    Now tell me, who is your favorite driver?

    BTW... I used last season's Watkins Glen results just to be more realistic and if you'll recall JPM won that race. Stewart finished 7th and Newman was 12th.

    Let's face it, it would be a major miracle if the actual results come anywhere near what I've come up with...

    Thanks you old goat roper! LOL

    ReplyDelete
  7. SpeedBeagleJuly 21, 2011 at 12:15 AM

    Dwindy, Dwindy, Dwindy(shaking head and making disapproving noise)-

    Your tallying of the numbers fails to consider one VERY IMPORTANT factor- BEAGLE VOODOO!!! Carl cannot and WILL NOT win a Cup championship unless and until he publicly apologizes to Katie for trash talking her Tony.

    ReplyDelete
  8. SpeedBeagleJuly 21, 2011 at 12:24 AM

    Oh yeah- and Carl winning at Talladega????? I think not. Beagle voodoo is especially powerful at Talladega(must be because the track was built over an Indian burial ground). Don't believe me- look back at Fall 2008 when Carl takes out the entire RFR team, and who could forget Spring 2009 when Carl decided to fly to the finish line.

    ReplyDelete
  9. CR_RacingJuly 21, 2011 at 12:48 AM

    LOL @ SpeedBeagle... you go girl! You do the voodo very well!

    Dwindy, my favorite driver is..... (drum roll)... Ryan Newman, of course! ;)

    ReplyDelete
  10. Dwindy1July 21, 2011 at 4:54 AM

    Dang! They're gonna have to take me out into the town square and give me a whooppin'! How could I go to all this work and forget the powerful Beagle Voodoo? LOL!

    Now I know the run down on the Chase races is a little confusing... Talladega shows the line-up from the previous race (Edwards was tied with Hamlin for first after Charlotte). The first number given in that case (under Talladega) is the previous races' tally. The middle number is the points each driver got at Talladega while the number on the right is the new Chase tally which then appears as the first number under Martinsville. JJ won at Talladega (probably with Mark Martin pushing him)...

    Thanks Wonderdog!

    ReplyDelete
  11. Dwindy1July 21, 2011 at 4:55 AM

    I never would have guessed you're a Ryan Newman fan CR! LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete

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