The 2010 Sprint Cup... What’s Goin’ On Here?

Thought I’d race the averages on the balance of the 2010 Sprint Cup season and see who comes out on top.

Looking at the final three races (Bristol, Atlanta and Richmond) of the 26 that act to determine who will make the shootout for the Cup I needed to determine the career average points per race generated on each of these final tracks for each of the drivers contending for the final slot (11. Biffle @ 378; 12. Boyer @ 369; 13. Martin @ 382 & 14. Newman @ 362). Then I added the average numbers to the actual point totals each driver has to date. After tallying the numbers, and barring any unfortunate accidents, I found that there shouldn’t be any changes in the top twelve lineup.

Next I moved on to the final ten races that determine the Cup Champion. Using the last five seasons’ average points generated by each of the twelve drivers on each of the ten tracks, I determined who should be the 2010 Sprint Cup Champion…

Without laying out all the numbers, just consider that I used the latest five seasons to determine the average points. It was the only fair way to do it. Of course I ran right into the fantastic numbers posted by four time in a row reigning Cup Champion Jimmie Johnson. He has simply dominated NASCAR’s highest echelon of racing.

Here’s how the numbers foresee the final 2010 Cup standings:

1 Jimmie Johnson 6559
2 Jeff Gordon 6375
3 Carl Edwards 6366
4 Denny Hamlin 6349
5 Matt Kenseth 6310
6 Jeff Burton 6266
7 Kevin Harvick 6259
8 Tony Stewart 6249
9 Greg Biffle 6245
10 Kyle Busch 6236
11 Clint Bowyer 6161
12 Kurt Busch 6157

JJ took the lead after the second Cup race held at Dover and never relinquished it. In NASCAR’s points system, a driver winning a race receives 185 points. That driver will get another 5 points for leading a lap and then there’s an additional reward of another 5 points for leading the most laps during the race. Therefore, the most points a driver can garnish is 195 in any one race. With that in mind, here are the past five seasons’ average points Jimmie Johnson has generated by championship track:

- Jimmie Johnson –
Track (Starts)---Ave. Pts.
Loudon (9)---------146
Dover (9)------------149
Kansas (5)----------159
Fontana (9)---------174
Charlotte (9)--------135
Martinsville (9)----178
Talladega (9)-------134
Texas (8)-------------133
Phoenix (9)---------177
Homestead (5)----124
TOTAL>>>>>> 1,509

That's averaging a 6th place finish across the biggest races of the year!

To better illustrate just how dominant Jimmie Johnson has been over the 2005-2010 seasons, here are the top averages of the other eleven drivers that should be in the 2010 Cup Championship competition, track by track:

Driver--------Track (Starts)---Top Ave. Pts.
Jeff Gordon - Loudon (9)------------149
Greg Biffle - Dover (9)----------------160
Greg Biffle - Kansas (5)--------------167
Matt Kenseth - Fontana (9)---------162
Kyle Busch - Charlotte (9)----------140
Jeff Gordon - Martinsville (9)------168
Kurt Busch - Talladega (9)---------130
Matt Kenseth - Texas (8)-------------154
Hamlin/Stewart - Phoenix (9)-------135
Kevin Harvick - Homestead (5)----151
TOTAL>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 1,516!!!

Yes, taking the top 5 year averages of Jimmie’s best competitors in 2010 and the difference across the 10 races that will determine this year’s champion is only seven (7) points! That’s consistency on Jimmie’s part… That’s Johnson’s dominance…




You Lug Nuts are into NASCAR racing to a much higher degree than I am… Has there ever been another driver that put together a run like this???

My hat’s off to you Jimmie Johnson. Even though I’m not a fan of yours, I’ve got to give you your due…

For you with inquiring minds, here’s each driver’s 5 year average tally across the 10 NASCAR Championship tracks, top to bottom:

Jimmie Johnson 1,509
Jeff Gordon 1,375
Carl Edwards 1,366
Matt Kenseth 1,310
Denny Hamlin 1,299
Jeff Burton 1,266
Tony Stewart 1,249
Greg Biffle 1,245
Kevin Harvick 1,229
Kyle Busch 1,216
Clint Bowyer 1,161
Kurt Busch 1,137

Now for the disclaimer…

As former NFL head football coach Herman Edwards once said, “That’s why we play the games.” (To determine the winner).

We all know that anything can happen when a group of drivers rub fenders at 190 MPH. We’re all also aware that the other racing teams have seemingly caught up with Hendrick Motor Sports in 2010. So maybe this is the year when JJ falters… Then again, HMS could have been playin’ possum too…