Showing posts with label 2011 NFL Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2011 NFL Draft. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

2011 NFL Draft Grades



Late last month the 2011 NFL Draft was held in New York City’s Radio City Music Hall.

You know, after intently watching the proceedings across three days of broadcasting and really getting tired of listening to and seeing those Giants and Jets fans carry on, I came to the conclusion that they need to float the draft venue around the country and allow other football fans a chance to make fools out of themselves too, but do you think that’ll ever happen?

Here is a rather lengthy look at how well each NFL team did in the 2011 Draft. In it, each team is named, the team’s Offensive (O) and Defensive (D) rankings from 2010 are displayed, each team’s 7 most pressing personnel needs are given (arrived at by combining several sources of team need information), each team’s draft picks (by position) are given and a Value Rating is shown (this rating is arrived at by subtracting a players ranking in the draft from the selecting team’s selection number. E.G. Team X uses selection #10 to take the 5th ranked player in the draft resulting in a net of +5. The higher the rating number, the more value a team got for their selections. This rating is displayed in terms of each team’s value in the first 3 rounds as well as across all of their draft selections.

Finally, I get to run through my take on each team’s draft and grade them (Given in order of their first round selection position)… Enjoy!


Carolina Panthers – O-32, D-26 –
Top 7 Needs – QB, DT, WR, DE, OLB, OT & OG
Draft picks – QB, DT, DT, CB, WR, ILB, C & OT
Value Rating – 3 Rd.- (166.78), Overall- (261.39)
Considering the Panthers didn’t have pick number 33 (first pick in the 2nd round) after trading it away last year, they went about putting together what could be a very good draft. It all hinges on the number one pick of the draft, QB Cam Newton. If this guy is the real deal (we already know he’s a great athlete), Carolina will have the prime ingredient to fielding a winning team for at least the next decade. If Newton doesn’t pan out, the team will continue to flounder into the foreseeable future… The Panthers filled their highest need positions but didn’t get good value and granted, time will tell… Grade C+


Denver Broncos – O-19, D-32 –
Top 7 Needs – CB, DT, DE, OT, SS, RB & FS
Draft picks – OLB, FS, OT, ILB, FS, TE, ILB, TE & DE
Value Rating – 3 Rd.- (121.26), Overall- 144.49
New GM Elway opted for quality over need with the team’s top pick taking the best outside linebacker in the draft then must have developed a case of the hiccups as he took 2 FSs, 2 ILBs and 2 TEs while never addressing the team’s top need at cornerback… Maybe those safeties can convert to corners. The 32nd ranked defense has help on the way… Grade C-


Buffalo Bills
– O-28, D-28 –
Top 7 Needs – QB, OT, DE, OLB, DT, SS & WR
Draft Picks – DT, CB, ILB, SS, OT, RB, ILB, CB & OG
Value Rating – 3 Rd.- 2.55, Overall- (573.89)
With nine picks in the 2011 Draft, the Bills had many needs to fill. Management must see more in their current QB than the talking heads out there as they passed on both TCU’s Andy Dalton and Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick in the second round. I guess being 28th in total offense doesn’t bother these guys. Maybe they go by the axiom that if the other team can’t score then they’re gonna be in the game… So they concentrated on helping their 28th ranked defense… Grade C+


Cincinnati Bengals – O-22, D-24 –
Top 7 Needs – QB, DE, OT, WR, RB, C & DT
Draft Picks - WR, QB, OLB/DE, OG, FS, WR, CB & RB
Value Rating – 3 Rd.- (19.89), Overall- (152.09)
This team looked like it was putting things together 2 seasons ago then the wheels came off once again when injuries decimated their improved defense. The Ochocinco/T.O. sideshow last year was unbelievable, so much so that QB Carson Palmer has had enough of the “Bengal Way” and is bolting from the team putting the need for a quality QB right on top of the Bengals’ want list. They got the top receiver in the draft as it looks like both the prima donna receivers will be gone and then picked up Palmer’s heir-apparent. How well TCU’s Andy Dalton performs will define this draft… Grade B-


Arizona Cardinals – O-26, D-30 –
Top 7 Needs – QB, OLB, OT, OG, CB, TE & C
Draft Picks – CB, RB, TE, OLB, FB, ILB, DT & WR
Value Rating – 3 Rd.- (63.08), Overall- (108.40)
Head coach Ken Wisenhunt and his staff did a very good job the last few years considering they have to work with the always money-tight Bidwell ownership. Looking at the Cards’ offensive and defensive rankings from 2010 you realize just how much the team has fallen. Before last season, free agency and retirement took huge bites out of a team that had been in the Super Bowl just three short years ago. I have to wonder about them passing on a QB in this draft. They must covet a free agent QB (ex-Ram Bulger?). They waded through last season without a top trigger man and look what that got ‘em: the 5th pick in this year’s draft! Instead of taking a QB they landed a blue chipper in LSU’s Patrick Peterson who is not only the best corner/safety in this draft but also a top return man. Then they went and picked up another RB even though their needs didn’t dictate one in the second round… Grade C


Cleveland Browns – O-31, D-13 –
Top 7 Needs – WR, DE, ILB, OT, OLB, FS & DT
Draft Picks – DT, DE, WR, TE, FB, CB, OG, OG, FS & FS
Value Rating – 3 Rd.- (43.90), Overall- (290.39)
Trading out of the number 6 pick for 4 picks from Atlanta (2 this year and 2 next) defined this draft for the Browns. GM Mike Holmgren and new head coach Pat Shurmur decided to switch away from the 3-4 to a 4-3 defense making defensive linemen a top need even though the team ranked 13th on D last year. Then they filled the team’s top need for their next-to-last in 2010 offense with one of those prima donna wide outs… We’ll see how the redesigned Browns fair against the Steelers and Ravens… Grade A


San Francisco 49ers – O-24, D-16 –
Top 7 Needs – QB, OG, DT, OLB, CB, WR & DE
Draft Picks – OLB, QB, FS, RB, TE, OG, WR, SS, OLB, OG & CB
Value Rating – 3 Rd.- (135.70), Overall- (1,012.22)
Starting with their number 7 pick in the first round of this draft, the Niners were “reaching” for players like a hungry man at the dining table of a boarding house while attempting to fill their plate (needs). They did a fair to poor job and here again taking a young QB (Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick) may tell the tale on the 49ers’ 2011 draft… Grade D+


Tennessee Titans – O-17, D-15 –
Top 7 Needs – QB, OG, DE, ILB, CB, TE & OLB
Draft Picks – QB, OLB, DT, ILB, RB, DE, OT, DT & SS
Value Rating – 3 Rd.- 19.41, Overall- (966.69)
Another team in total transition… A new head coach, a new QB, and a new philosophy are all at work here. With an accomplished trigger man, this team isn’t too far from playoff contention… The team surprised a lot of people first by shedding themselves of former first round pick QB Vince Young, then sacking their head coach (Jeff Fisher) who never wanted Young in the first place and finally by taking Washington’s Jake Locker with the number 8 pick. Now the ever present question with young, first round QB’s once again settles in: Will he pan out? Other than the QB question (a question that will most likely go unanswered for at least 2 years with Locker), the team did a fair job filling their other needs, especially in the top 3 rounds… Grade C+


Dallas Cowboys
– O-7, D-31 –
Top 7 Needs – OT, DE, CB, FS, C, ILB & SS
Draft Picks – OT, OLB, RB, OG, CB, WR, FB & OG
Value Rating – 3 Rd.- (23.37), Overall- (394.78)
31st on defense? Wasn’t that why they brought in Wade Phillips? 7th on offense? This without Tony Romo for much of the season… 2010 was supposed to be the Cowboy’s year to be a home team in the Super Bowl and yet the wheels totally came off. The only good thing I see in the Boy’s selections is that they filled their greatest need with the 9th pick of the draft but on the other hand they took only one defensive side pick with their next 3 picks for their next to last ranked defense. I like it! Jerry Jones (that great football mind) runs this team as it continues to flounder… Grade C-


Washington Redskins
– O-25, D-22 –
Top 7 Needs – QB, WR, OT, CB, RB, OG & DT
Draft Picks – DE, DT, WR, RB, SS, WR, RB, WR, CB, OG, DE & DT
Value Rating – 3 Rd.- 3.00, Overall- (419.03)
What a change a couple of years under head coach Mike Shanahan and GM Bruce Allen have meant for the Skins! It wasn’t too long ago when this team might have a handful of late round picks in the draft as they continually mortgaged their future by trading their top draft picks for established (over the hill?) players. This year they parlayed picks into more picks and began a youth movement that was long overdue. Although they didn’t come away with a new QB, this was an excellent draft for one of the oldest (personnel wise) teams in the league… Grade A


Houston Texans
– O-9, D-29 –
Top 7 Needs – DT, DE, CB, SS, FS, OLB & OG
Draft Picks – DE, OLB, CB, CB, SS, QB, OT & DE
Value Rating – 3 Rd.- 14.25, Overall – (110.32)
I have to say that 2011 is a make or break year for the Texans’ head coach Gary Kubiak and luckily the Texans’ youth movement was needed on the defensive side of the ball where young players usually can have an immediate impact. A good core group of defensive players is on hand but injuries have kept knocking this team for a loop so if this draft class of mostly defensive players helps and the injury bug backs off a bit, the Houston fans may finally have something to cheer about… Grade B+


Minnesota Vikings – O-29, D-18 –
Top 7 Needs – QB, OT, CB, C, RB, DE & FS
Draft Picks – QB, TE, DE, CB, FS, C, DE & WR
Value Rating – 3 Rd.- (14.66), Overall – (278.15)
The Vikings thought they were on the precipice of a Super Bowl championship after pulling in several players from the free agent market, but no rings came of it. This is now an old team with needs on both sides of the ball and a new head coach (Leslie Frazier) who gets to sort it all out. They must have had a panic attack watching other teams snatch up the top QBs in the draft before their turn came to pick at #12, so they went ahead and reached for Florida State QB Christian Ponder who was rated a mid-2nd round pick at best… After the reach at QB they switched to value picks through the next four picks before once again reaching late in the draft… Grade C-


Detroit Lions – O-15, D-19 –
Top 7 Needs – CB, OLB, OT, OG, FS, ILB & DT
Draft Picks – DT, WR, RB, OLB & OT
Value Rating – 3 Rd.- 48.01, Overall – (262.21)
Here’s a team, after all these years of frustration, poised to challenge division opponent Chicago for sure and possibly the World Champion Packers. With only 5 picks in this draft they took a couple of strides to solidify the team but surprised me, considering how much time their first round draft pick QB has lost to injury, by not taking an offensive lineman with one of their three early picks. On the other hand the Lions’ defensive line will literally maul their opponents next season by adding DT Fairley, this while the Lions didn’t fill their perceived greatest need in the defensive backfield. Maybe they figure if the opposing QB can’t get his passes off… Grade B-


St. Louis Rams
– O-27, D-12 –
Top 7 Needs – WR, OT, OG, DT, TE, OLB & FS
Draft Picks – DE, TE, WR, WR, FS, CB, OLB & FS
Value Rating – 3 Rd.-(20.71), Overall – (509.51)
The Rams’ management drafted for need in 2010 then divorced that philosophy at the top of this draft by taking the best defensive end available even though that wasn’t a position of need. Then they went back to need selections picking up three receivers for their good young QB. Whether its been a conscious effort or not, the Rams are following the same team resurrection process I think I’d use in their situation. Build a strong defense first then strengthen the offense. The theory being if your opponent can’t score, you’re in the game, even with a weak offense. If the offensive production begins improving in 2011, this team looks to be on the fast track to the NFC West title this season… Grade B+


Miami Dolphins
– O-30, D-14 –
Top 7 Needs – QB, RB, TE, OG, FS, ILB & OT
Draft Picks – OG, RB, WR, SS, TE, DT & CB
Value Rating – 3 Rd.- 2.91, Overall – (602.86)
Here again, we’ve got a head coach (Tony Sparano) who may be on a very short leash with a team that’s getting older with many holes to fill. With that in mind, all indications are the Phins will be in the free agent QB market whenever it’s reopened rather than trying to stick with their current options (Henne and free agent Pennington). With that decision evidently made, they went about taking care of their other top needs in workmanlike order … Grade B


Jacksonville Jaguars
– O-18, D-27 –
Top 7 Needs – DE, CB, SS, FS, ILB, QB & WR
Draft Picks – QB, OG, WR, CB & FS
Value Rating – 3 Rd.- (17.68), Overall – (834.24)
I keep thinking head coach Jack Del Rio is about to get sacked and then they pull off a draft move that should indicate a secure head coach (trading up to take a top collegiate QB (Blaine Gabbert) that needs seasoning). Considering this move, I’ve got to believe the Jags’ owners must be happy with the man. Another head shaker concerns the teams’ poor defensive performance last season and their lack of any top defensive picks in a draft rich in defensive talent… Grade D


Oakland Raiders
– O-6, D-20 –
Top 7 Needs – OG, CB, DT, OT, QB, C & OLB
Draft Picks – C/OG, CB, OT, CB, RB, WR, TE & WR
Value Rating – 3 Rd.- (179.59), Overall – (830.20)
It looked like former head coach Tom Cable had the Raiders on the right track and yet he was sacked. Who knows what goes through the mind of owner Al Davis? With the exception of the Silver and Black’s first pick (which came mid-way through the 2nd round), the team’s draft selections once again ran contrary to conventional thinking as the Raiders went far afield for speedy players that fit their needs. I keep hoping that Davis, who remains an NFL legend, will just gracefully step aside and preserve what credibility he still has left… Grade D


San Diego Chargers – O-2, D-10 –
Top 7 Needs – DE, OLB, OT, OG, QB, DT & ILB
Draft Picks – DT/DE, FS, OLB, WR, CB, RB, OG & OLB
Value Rating – 3 Rd.- (293.63), Overall – (444.73)
Look at the offensive and defensive ratings this team posted last season. And yet they didn’t make the playoffs… I guess head coach Norv Turner must kowtow to the team’s over-bearing GM (A.J. Smith), that’s the only explanation I can come up with concerning how he keeps his job. And then there’s the self-important Smith. It’s almost like he’s suddenly become envious of the Raiders’ Al Davis trying to find top players that nobody else covets. The team’s needs were met and it’ll take time to see if the Chargers’ selections will make a difference or not… Grade C


New York Giants – O-8, D-17 –
Top 7 Needs – OT, ILB, OLB, RB, C, DT & OG
Draft Picks – CB, DT, WR, OT, ILB, SS, OLB & RB
Value Rating – 3 Rd.-45.86, Overall – (74.94)
The Giants literally “fell” into four excellent picks early in the 2011 draft through no effort on their part. The 2nd rated CB, a highly thought of DT, a high-speed receiver and a good right tackle all seemed to fall right into their lap. With only the Eagles doing well in the NFC East, watch the Giants this coming season. A couple of these players may be instrumental in a return to the playoffs… Grade B+


Tampa Bay Buccaneers – O-20, D-9 –
Top 7 Needs – DE, ILB, OLB, OT, OG, WR & RB
Draft Picks – DE, DE, OLB, TE, SS, RB, CB & TE
Value Rating – 3 Rd.- 27.23, Overall 75.96
Last season 2nd year head coach Raheem Morris told the youngest team in the NFL over and over again they were winners and they bought in. For this draft class and evidently under a mandate from the Glazer family owners based on all the bad publicity this team has been garnering from bad boy roster members, GM Mark Dominik went out of his way to fill the team’s needs with a unique twist: 5 of the 8 selections were team captains on their college teams. They went out looking for high character team leaders. If the young Bucs, with an offense set to continue improving and a defense given an instant pass rush through the 2011 draft, continues to buy in to their coach’s enthusiasm, the NFC South will solidify itself as the toughest division in the NFL. Grade B+


Kansas City Chiefs
– O-14, D-11 –
Top 7 Needs – WR, OT, C, OLB, DT, DE & QB
Draft Picks – WR, OG/C, OLB/DE, DE, CB, QB, OLB, DT & RB
Value Rating – 3 Rd.- 81.26, Overall (497.04)
Meet my favorite to once again win the AFC West this year. The Chiefs are a good young team with good coaching and a relatively easy division to play in. If you think it looks like a New England draft featuring multi-purpose players, you’re right. The Chiefs have several Bill Belichick disciples on board, including head coach Todd Haley in his third year at the helm. With a very successful early draft under their belt, (sometimes a team’s list of needs just aligns with the best available talent) the Chiefs may challenge for more than just a division title in 2011… Grade A


Indianapolis Colts
– O-4, D-23 –
Top 7 Needs – OT, OG, OLB, CB, C, SS & FS
Draft Picks – OT, OT/OG, DT, RB, QB & CB
Value Rating – 3 Rd.- 37.09, Overall – 24.61
After watching Peyton Manning hurry his passes or get his back side planted in the sports turf way too often last season, the Colts’ management went out and landed two very good offensive linemen with their first two picks. With only 6 picks, what puzzles me is their lack of concern for the 23rd ranked defense devoting four of those picks to the 4th rated offense. If it was me, I’d have made the same first two picks, but the rest of the draft would have been devoted to reinvigorating the defense… Grade B-


Philadelphia Eagles – O-13, D-6 –
Top 7 Needs – OG, CB, OT, OLB, C & FS
Draft Picks – OG, FS, CB, ILB, K, RB, WR, C, OLB, WR, ILB & FB
Value Rating – 3 Rd.-(36.72), Overall (256.00)
The Eagles are in the cat bird seat with a rare commodity in the NFL, two QBs both capable of starting. Once this labor mess is straightened out we’ll see how much Kevin Kolb is worth and I’d bet the Eagles will be able to stockpile top draft picks into the future as a result. This is the best team in the NFC East and head coach Andy Reid met his team’s top needs with pretty good early pick value… Grade B


New Orleans Saints – O-11, D-7
Top 7 Needs – DT, DE, ILB, OLB, RB, TE & OT
Draft Picks – DE, RB, ILB, CB, DE & OLB
Value Rating – 3 Rd.- 85.79, Overall 26.32
The Saints still made the playoffs in 2010 but something was obviously amiss since they won the Super Bowl in February, 2010. Maybe it was a classic case of championship hangover and that’s very understandable considering they’re based in party central: New Orleans… Looking at their team needs and the players taken with only 6 picks I’ve got to say these guys really helped themselves with good value picks. The move to trade back into the late first round to select probably the best running back in this draft, Alabama’s Mark Ingram, may have put the icing on another Super Bowl cake next February… Grade B+


Seattle Seahawks – O-23, D-25
Top 7 Needs – DT, OT, CB, SS, DE, RB & WR
Draft Picks – OT, OG/C, OLB, WR, CB, CB, DE & OLB
Value Rating – 3 Rd.-(76.48), Overall (737.99)
After their 2010 draft which gained high acclaim around the league, Pete Carroll’s 2011 effort left a lot of people wondering as the Hawks took a 3rd round rated OT with the 25th pick of the draft then reached once again with their next pick (#75) for a 4th round rated OG. This carried on throughout the draft. It was like the Seahawks knew something nobody else did as they gleefully picked off several relatively unknown, low-rated college players. We’ll see if Carroll and crew’s happiness with their picks is justified… Grade D


Baltimore Ravens – O-3, D-21
Top 7 Needs – CB, C, SS, WR, DE, ILB & FS
Draft Picks – CB, WR, OT, WR, CB, DE, QB & RB
Value Rating – 3 Rd.-(97.99) – Overall 1.14
2010 represented quite a flip flop for the Ravens who had lived off their defensive prowess over the last few years. The team’s defense ballooned to a 21st ranking in the NFL while the Raven offense ranked 3rd! With the exception of a big reach in the third round for an OT (Jah Reid out of Central Florida) this was a very good draft value-wise by GM Ozzie Newsome as he went about taking care of the team’s needs… Grade B+


Atlanta Falcons – O-5, D-5
Top 7 Needs – OT, WR, OG, DE, OLB, CB & TE
Draft Picks – WR, ILB, RB, FS, K/P, OG & OLB/DE
Value Rating – 3 Rd.-(193.47), Overall (177.81)
Although the team’s management denied it, it sure looks like they believed they were only one player shy of a deep playoff run leading up to next season’s Super Bowl as the Falcons traded up for Cleveland’s number 6 selection and picked Alabama All-American WR Julio Jones giving away 4 picks of their own (2 in this draft and 2 next year) to make it happen. Once they settled back in, they picked off one of those quick little RB’s that could be a game breaker in Oregon State’s Jacquizz Rogers. Not a bad draft for a young playoff team looking for the right ingredients to win it all… Grade B-


New England Patriots
– O-1, D-8
Top 7 Needs – OT, OLB, DE, RB, OG, DT & WR
Draft Picks – OT, CB, RB, RB, QB, OT, TE, DE & CB
Value Rating – 3 Rd.-(108.72) – Overall (811.62)
A trademark Bill Belichick draft full of wheelin’ and dealin’. Bill was stockpiling draft picks into the future and tinkering with the Ferrari getting ready for another run at the championship. With 5 picks in the first three rounds the Pat’s head coach met his primary need with an OT in the first round then had the luxury of taking Arkansas’ QB Ryan Mallett, a tall pure pocket passer, as heir apparent to Tom Brady. Several new faces will try to make the squad… Grade B


Chicago Bears
– O-21, D-4
Top 7 Needs – OT, OG, WR, C, DT, SS & FS
Draft Picks – OT, DT, FS, CB, QB & OLB
Value Rating – 3 Rd.-(63.18), Overall (202.86)
The glaring need on this team is protection for the QB and while they took an OT in the first round, that was it. The defense carried this team into the playoffs last season where it all ended when QB Jay Cutler was taken out. Seems to me at least one more OL pick was in order. Oft-injured DT Paea out of Oregon State went in the second round and may be a steal if he can avoid injury. When will the Bears’ playoff window close? I’m going to guess in won’t be long… Grade C-


New York Jets
– O-10, D-2
Top 7 Needs – DE, DT, OLB, WR, OG, SS & OT
Draft Picks – DT/DE, DT, RB, WR, QB & WR
Value Rating – 3 Rd.- 9.83, Overall (134.38)
The Jets were reactive in this draft as they had to cover themselves across their defensive front where age, a wipeout and injuries kept lowering the quality of play. They appear to have shored up the area with their top two picks. With two big name prima donna WRs becoming free agents, head coach Rex Ryan was forced to use two other picks to patch up that potential problem area. Possibly the most important pick was the late draft selection of Alabama QB Greg McElroy (who I believe has a lot of potential now that he’s away from Saban’s Spread O at Alabama) as a backup for QB Sanchez… Grade B-


Pittsburgh Steelers
– O-12, D-1
Top 7 Needs – OT, OG, CB, DE, RB, WR & C
Draft Picks – DE, OT, CB, CB, OLB, OG & RB
Value Rating – 3 Rd.- 13.12, Overall (74.55)
The Steelers draft philosophy was again adhered to in 2011. These guys don’t trade draft picks, they’re not normally in the free agent market while always intent on bringing in fresh talent by sticking to their draft board getting good value for their selections. As the winningest franchise in Super Bowl history, who can knock it? I think they might have taken a chance in the first round by picking Ohio State’s DE Cameron Heyward who has had injury problems. Other than that I can’t find much to fault the Steelers’ player personnel people… Grade B


Green Bay Packers – O-16, D-3
Top 7 Needs – OLB, RB, OG, CB, OT, C & DE
Draft Picks – OT, WR, RB, CB, TE, OG, OLB, DE, TE & DE/DT
Value Rating – 3 Rd.-(114.32), Overall (174.15)
The World Champs got right to work on their 16th ranked offense using five of their first six picks on that side of the ball. A couple of reaches were made in the late rounds while they got excellent value on a couple of other picks. Let’s see if the Pack gets drawn into the post-Championship doldrums like the Saints… Grade B+

In a condensed version, here’s how I see it:

A - Cleveland Browns, Kansas City Chiefs & Washington Redskins

B+ - Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, St. Louis Rams & Tampa Bay Buccaneers

B – Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles & Pittsburgh Steelers

B- - Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions, Indianapolis Colts & New York Jets

C+ - Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers & Tennessee Titans

C – Arizona Cardinals & San Diego Chargers

C- - Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos & Minnesota Vikings

D+ - San Francisco 49ers

D – Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders & Seattle Seahawks

Or by Division:

AFC East – B- ----------AFC North – B+ -------AFC South – C+ -----AFC West – C
Miami Dolphins-B ---Cleveland Browns-A ---Houston Texans-B+ --K. C. Chiefs-A
New England Pats-B -Baltimore Ravens -B+ -Indianapolis Colts-B- -S. D. Chargers-C
New York Jets-B- ---Pittsburgh Steelers-B --Tennessee Titans-C+ -Denver Broncos-C-
Buffalo Bills-C+ ------Cincinnati Bengals-B- --Jacksonville Jags-D ---Oakland Raiders-D

NFC East – B -------------NFC North – C+ --------NFC South - B --------NFC West - C
Washington Redskins-A Green Bay Packers-B+ -New Orleans Saints-B+ St. L. Rams-B+
New York Giants-B+ ----Detroit Lions-B- -------Tampa Bay Bucs-B+ --Ari. Cardinals-C
Philadelphia Eagles-B ---Chicago Bears-C- -------Atlanta Falcons-B- --S. F. 49ers-D+
Dallas Cowboys-C- -----Minnesota Vikings-C- ---Carolina Panthers-C+ -Sea. Seahawks-D

This divisional look really makes me wonder… The most competitive divisions really stand out with high average grades while the least competitive divisions (both the AFC and NFC West divisions) have some of the worst grades in this draft. Is it just my critical eye being a Westerner and all? No, I think it’s just reality. There’s a reason why most of those western teams are floundering… Evidently they haven’t devoted the time and effort to researching their draft picks, they're simply a collection of teams that go to their own drummer or they don’t believe what they’re being told… One way or another, these people better get their acts together…

Let me know what you think.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

It's NFL Draft Time!


Trying to forecast the NFL Player Draft has become an interesting hobby for me over the years. I hate to admit how much time goes into this frustrating process that’s based upon the initial thought of “Who is my team going to get in the Draft?”

Unless your team is selecting number one in the first round, a dubious distinction “earned” by ending up with the worst record during the previous season, you’ve got to try and figure out who several of the other teams are going to take in order to have a look at the players still available by the time your team picks. The key to that process is based on what the top needs each team has. In other words, team X gave up more touchdown passes than any other team in the league so that team needs to overhaul their defensive backfield (most likely the cornerbacks) and possibly the players that pressure the opposing quarterback (defensive ends and outside linebackers). Team Y will probably have a completely different set of needs. Every team prioritizes their personnel needs in preparation for the draft. They pay a lot of people a lot of money in this process.

The next element in all of this is the quality of the players available coming out of college and if you think a lot of money was spent on determining the team needs, its nothing compared to the cost of this procedure. The young players are literally examined from every vantage point possible. Imagine you’re a personnel manager for a multi-billion dollar business and you’ve been empowered to select a young hotshot executive that’s going to cost your company millions of dollars whether the person pans out on the job or not… There are a fair number of young players that collect a lot of money and never live up to expectations on one hand while others, not highly thought of, end up being Hall of Fame performers. I guess what I’m saying is this draft process, for all the time, effort and money thrown at it, is an inexact process at best or a crap shot in the least.

So you’ve got team needs and a group of collegiate players available to fill those needs and a group of 32 teams that have “experts” who sit down together and wade through this draft selection process with millions of dollars on the line.

Then you throw in a wild card rarely seen. The 2011 NFL season is essentially on hold due to labor/ownership problems. The last collective bargaining agreement between the players' union and the NFL owners, which ended up being a boon to the players and a thorn in the side of the owners, ended in March. The two sides have been having a contentious time attempting to hammer out a new agreement that literally pits millionaires against billionaires ever since. As it stands today the Federal court system has entered the fray attempting to force an end to the situation (another example of where our government has become involved in matters better left to the private sector). Normally there is a trading and free agency period prior to the draft where teams and established players bargain with other teams for player services. A team’s success landing free agents or trading for players then dictates what other team needs must be addressed through the collegiate player draft. The 2011 draft doesn’t enjoy that luxury…

To add to the mystic of determining who gets who through the draft, and this really throws a wrench in the works, there are normally several draft pick trades between the teams. For example, in the last two years’ drafts there were 10 and 12 trades in just the first round in 2010 and 2009 respectively! And the trading continues on down through the draft.


The teams wit
h the previous season’s worst records pick first in the draft. The reasons these teams get to pick first usually boil down to the lack of a top quarterback, unquestionably the most important player to a football team’s success. Those struggling teams also usually end up firing the head coach and his staff. So in 2011 there are 7 teams with new head coaches and 10 teams that list quarterback as their number one area of need. Here again, normally many of these teams fill their quarterback need through free agency or trades for established signal callers. That won’t be the case this year. The pressure to obtain a quarterback through the collegiate draft has taken a quantum leap as a result.

This Thursday evening, the first round of the NFL Draft will be held followed on Friday evening by rounds two and three. Saturday will feature the remaining four rounds.

So, for all you NFL football fans out there, here’s Dwindy1’s 2011 draft prognostication (with QBs highlighted in red and w/o any unknown trades ):

The Carolina Panthers are on the clock…
1. QB Cam Newton, Auburn.
2. Denver Broncos – DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama.
3. Buffalo Bills – OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M.
4. Cincinnati Bengals – WR A.J. Green, Georgia.
5. Arizona Cardinals – CB Patrick Peterson, LSU.
6. Cleveland Browns – DE Robert Quinn, North Carolina.
7. San Francisco 49ers – CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska.
8. Tennessee Titans – DT Nick Fairley, Auburn.
9. Dallas Cowboys – OT Tyron Smith, USC.
10. Washington Redskins – WR Julio Jones, Alabama.
11. Houston Texans – DE Cameron Jordan, California.
12. Minnesota VikingsQB Blain Gabbert, Missouri.
13. Detroit Lions – OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College.
14. St. Louis Rams – DT Corey Liuget, Illinois.
15. Miami Dolphins – OG Mike Pouncey, Florida.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue.
17. New England Patriots (from Oakland) – DE J.J. Watt, Wisconsin.
18. San Diego Chargers – DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa.
19. New York Giants – OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DE Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson.
21. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Nate Solder, Colorado.
22. Indianapolis Colts – OT Derek Sherrod, Mississippi State.
23. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Brandon Harris, Miami (FL).
24. New Orleans Saints – RB Mark Ingram, Alabama.
25. Seattle SeahawksQB Jake Locker, Washington.
26. Baltimore Ravens – CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado.
27. Atlanta Falcons – DE Cameron Heyward, Ohio State.
28. New England Patriots – OLB Aldon Smith, Missouri.
29. Chicago Bears – OG/C Rodney Hudson, Florida State.
30. New York Jets – OLB/DE Justin Houston, Georgia.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers – CB Aaron Williams, Texas.

And, as the reigning NFL champion, the Green Bay Packers get the last pick of the first round…

32. DE Christian Ballard, Iowa.

So I’ve only got 3 quarterbacks taken in the first round. What are those other 7 teams going to do?

Here are the picks for each team (presented alphabetically with any QB picks highlighted in red) in rounds two and three under the above circumstances:

Arizona Cardinals38. QB Andy Dalton, TCU & 69. OG DeMarcus Love, Arkansas.
Atlanta Falcons – 59. WR Austin Pettis, Boise State & 91. TE Virgil Green, Nevada.
Baltimore Ravens – 58. WR Randall Cobb, Kentucky & 90. ILB Colin McCarthy, Miami (FL).
Buffalo Bills34. QB Ryan Mallett, Arkansas & 68. OG Jason Pinkston, Pittsburgh.
Carolina Panthers – 65. DT Phil Taylor, Baylor & 97. SS Ahmad Black, Florida.
Chicago Bears – 62. OT Marcus Cannon, TCU & 93. DE Allen Bailey, Miami (FL).
Cincinnati Bengals35. QB Christian Ponder, Florida State & 66. RB DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma.
Cleveland Browns – 37. OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA & 70. WR Vincent Brown, San Diego State.
Dallas Cowboys – 40. FS Rahim Moore, UCLA & 71. CB Curtis Brown, Texas.
Denver Broncos – 36. TE Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame, 46. DE Jabaal Sheard, Pittsburgh & 67. CB Brandon Burton, Utah.
Detroit Lions – 44. OLB Bruce Carter, North Carolina & 75. RB Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State.
Green Bay Packers – 64. RB Daniel Thomas, Kansas State & 96. WR Greg Little, North Carolina.
Houston Texans – 42. DT Stephen Paea, Oregon State & 73. CB Ras-I Dowling, Virginia.
Indianapolis Colts – 53. WR Torrey Smith, Maryland & 87. SS Tyler Sash, Iowa.
Jacksonville Jaguars – 49. SS DeAndre McDaniel, Clemson & 80. DT Jarvis Jenkins, Clemson.
Kansas City Chiefs – 55. WR Jerrel Jernigan, Troy & 86. ILB Quan Sturdivant, North Carolina.
Miami Dolphins – 79. RB Shane Vereen, California.
Minnesota Vikings – 43. DT Muhammad Wilkerson, Temple.
New England Patriots – 33. C Stefen Wisniewski, Penn State, 60. RB Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech, 74. FS Quinton Carter, Oklahoma & 92. QB Ricky Stanzi, Iowa.
New Orleans Saints – 56. OLB Dontay Moch, Nevada, 72. DT Jurrell Casey, USC & 88. ILB Casey Matthews, Oregon.
New York Giants – 52. DT Drake Nevis, LSU & 83. ILB Greg Jones, Michigan State.
New York Jets – 94. DT Kendrick Ellis, Hampton.
Oakland Raiders – 48. OG Danny Watkins, Baylor & 81. CB Johnny Patrick, Louisville.
Philadelphia Eagles – 54. OT Benjamin Ijalana, Villanova & 85. RB Taiwan Jones, Eastern Washington.
Pittsburgh Steelers – 63. OT James Carpenter, Alabama & 95. RB Jordan Todman, Connecticut.
San Diego Chargers – 50. WR Jonathon Baldwin, Pittsburgh, 61. ILB Martez Wilson, Illinois, 82. OLB Mark Herzlich, Boston College & 89. Clint Boling, Georgia.
San Francisco 49ers – 45. WR Leonard Hankerson, Miami (FL) & 76. OLB Sam Acho, Texas.
Seattle Seahawks – 57. DT Marvin Austin, North Carolina.
St. Louis Rams – 47. WR Titus Young, Boise State & 78. TE Lance Kendricks, Wisconsin.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 51. CB Davon House, New Mexico State & 84. OT Orlando Franklin, Miami (FL).
Tennessee Titans39. QB Colin Kaepernick, Nevada & 77. TE Luke Stocker, Tennessee.
Washington Redskins – 41. RB Mikel LeShoure, Illinois.

Four more top ranked quarterbacks go in the second round and New England, enjoying the luxury of 6 picks in the first three rounds, picks up another QB late in the third round for back-up purposes to three time Superbowl Champion Tom Brady.

That's 8 quarterbacks in 97 picks...

The other teams with a quarterback at the top of their needs list (Jacksonville, Miami and San Francisco) will either stay the course with their current QBs or wade into the trade/free agency markets if and when the labor dispute comes to an end.

Have you got any questions? I’ll try to give you my reasoning if you do.

________________________________________________
Well, as usual, there were several surprises in the 1st round not the least of which was the lower amount of trades as compared to other years. Not having established player personnel available to sweeten the trade pot due to the ongoing labor unrest was undoubtedly a primary reason...

The biggest surprise came when Atlanta moved up to the 6th selection to take WR Julio Jones while trading away 5 picks (3 in 2011 and 2 in 2012). Included among those picks was their no. 1 pick in next year's draft. Time will tell, but that's a pretty steep price unless young Julio is directly responsible for winning the Super Bowl in the next few years... I think Mike Holmgren and the Cleveland Browns came out smelling like a rose!

Probably the second biggest surprise concerned the Vikings using the 12th pick of the draft to reach for Florida State's QB Christian Ponder. I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder. The Vikes being WAY down my list of favorite teams, I'm happy that someone in their personnel selection process made the pick.

Finally, there were a couple of things that came down due to teams waiting for the last possible moment on the clock before making their picks. First the Seattle Seahawks waited and waited, hoping to trade out of the 25th
pick, but no call came through. So they finally jumped up and selected who I had rated as the 9th best offensive tackle (James Carpenter out of Alabama) while leaving my 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th and 8th rated tackles on the board... This for a guy to play right tackle opposite left tackle Russell Okung their first pick of the 2010 draft. Maybe the guy will pan out but it sure looked like they were sure they had a trade and their plan B wasn't very well thought out...


Then Baltimore waited and waited on their pick at number 26 for the same reason, hoping for a trade. It made me wonder if the same team was the potential trading partner with both of these teams and they were both left standing at the alter... Baltimore actually ran out of time so Kansas City jumped up and made their selection taking the 26th pick away from the Ravens. At least Baltimore knew who they wanted and the poor timing didn't hurt them in that respect as they selected CB Jimmy Smith, a problem child out of Colorado, but here again, it made me wonder. Then New Orleans pulled the trigger with the New England Patriots for the 28th pick in order to take RB Mark Ingram out of Alabama. It must have been New Orleans in the background with both Seattle and Baltimore... I'd think twice about dealing with the Saints down the road...

Well, on to the 2nd and 3rd rounds tonight!